PT74.S1.Q14 - currently, no satellite orbiting earth

bonjoursm

http://7sage.com/lsat_explanations/lsat-74-section-1-question-14/
I am having problems understanding why that AP is the conclusion. Structurally, I understand that it is the conclusion (because of the conclusion indicator 'but'). However, the argument, IMO, is terrible. There is no support that the risk of a satellite colliding will increase in the near future. It says that ONCE it happens, then more collisions will occur. But, what if a collision never occurs in the first place?

Judyyyyy

"After all" should also indicate that the sentence immediately preceding it is the conclusion.

The conclusion is saying that the risk is "likely" to increase. The conclusion isn't absolute. Does that help?

emli1000

The "after all" should indicate that it's a premise and what's to come is the conclusion.
Where did you get that "but" is a conclusion indicator?

bonjoursm

I believe that JY said in one of his videos that 'but' and 'however' usually indicate the conclusion.

iiiSpoon

First off, don't fall into the 'what if' scenario because the question will always give you a clear situation. PT74-1-14 scenario is the aftermath of a collision of a satellite with another satellite/fragments.

This leads into the support which talks about how there will be a ton of little shards in space, and each of these fragments increases the likelihood of future crashes, and that's why "such a collision is likely to increase in the future."