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About the Logical Fallacy, time shift error

YumYumYumYumYumYum Alum Member
edited March 2021 in Logical Reasoning 7 karma

I saw that time shift error is flawed by the reason that we can not ensure that future and the present would be the same as the past.

But at the same time, we use a premise like "Histories proves.". I thought we could use the past as the evidence that future and present would be the same as the past. I thought it's like an analogy of past and present or future.

Is there some body help me close the gap between the above two?

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Comments

  • Burden.of.FloofBurden.of.Floof Core Member
    1050 karma

    Can you provide a more specific example? It's hard to comment without looking at the argument as a whole.

    But if I were to say "History proves that for the past 6 weeks Sara goes to the park on Sunday, therefore this Sunday, she's definitely going to the park." That argument is flawed because there is no guarantee that what's happened in the past will continue into the future.

    However, if the argument instead was something like "Sara has gone to the park on Sunday every week since she was a child, it's a family tradition and she has never missed it. Therefore, it's reasonable for me to infer that she will probably go to the park this Sunday." That's a much stronger argument that's hard to find fault with. The connection between the conclusion and the premises is much stronger, and by using "probably" you're not locked in with a guarantee of the event occurring.

  • bananabobananabo Core Member
    edited March 2021 1211 karma

    You can’t use past events to predict the present or the future. But I think you can still have past events in a premise, it just depends on how it plays with the conclusion.

    Example 1:
    -Alex has always had straight A’s from kindergarten through undergrad.
    -Therefore, he will get straight A’s in law school.
    There’s a "time-shift" fallacy happening here because you’re using his past grades to predict his future grades.

    Example 2:
    -Alex has always has straight A’s from kindergarten through undergrad.
    -Therefore, he has a history of being a good student.
    Here, however, there’s no “time-shift” fallacy because you’re not making a prediction about the future or the present. Here, you're still using the same timeline -- you're using past events to conclude past behavior.

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