You Try - Tropical Storms - MC Review

Time to review! Skimming the question stem, we see that we’re working on a Main Conclusion question.

The stimulus should sound somewhat familiar. The form is repetitive. Context or other people’s position followed by the author's argument in disagreement.

Let’s take a look:

Geographer: Because tropical storms require heat and moisture, they [the storms] form especially over ocean surfaces of at least 26 degrees Celsius (79 degrees Fahrenheit), ocean temperatures that global warming would encourage [those ocean temperatures being 26 degrees Celsius]. For this reason, many early discussions of global warming predicted that it [global warming] would cause more frequent and intense tropical storms. Why? Because global warming encourages the temperature of sea water that is conducive to the formation of tropical forms. This seems to make sense!

But…

Here’s where things get interesting! “But” doesn’t always function like this, but the vast majority of time it separates preceding context from the main argument at hand. That’s how it’s working here. Also frequently (but not always) the case is that the thing immediately following the “but” is the conclusion.

…recent research shows that this prediction is unlikely to be borne out.

In the simplest terms: No, they’re wrong! Why should we believe this? The premise, supporting the conclusion, follows.

Other factors, such as instabilities in wind flow, are likely to counteract global warming’s effects on tropical storm development.

So, while global warming contributes to tropical storm development in terms of ocean temperature, it influences other factors that counteract tropical storm development, like instability in wind flow.

We have a main conclusion that contains a referential phrase (“this prediction”), so it’s likely that the correct answer choice will be the one that fills in the referential phrase.

Let’s take a look:

Answer Choice (A) Tropical storms are especially likely to form over warm ocean surfaces. This is true, but it summarizes context information, not the main conclusion. Incorrect.

Answer Choice (B) Contrary to early discussions, global warming is not the only factor affecting the frequency and intensity of tropical storms. This is a trap answer. It starts out very promising with “contrary to early discussions.” The conclusion is contrary to early discussions! But the content needs to match too. What (B) says is that global warming is just one factor affecting the frequency and intensity of tropical storms. That’s true, but that’s not what the conclusion says. Our job is to paraphrase the conclusion, which is that global warming is unlikely to increase the frequency and intensity of tropical storms, and (B) doesn’t do that. Incorrect.

Answer Choice (C) If global warming were reversed, tropical storms would be less frequent and less intense. This answer choice asks us to posit some imaginary world where global warming is reversed. What would happen in that event? Doesn’t matter! It’s not relevant to the question being asked. This is a Main Conclusion question, not Most Strongly Supported. Let’s not indulge in any fantasies.

Answer Choice (D) Instabilities in wind flow will negate the effect of global warming on the formation of tropical storms. (D) seems to be attempting to parrot the premise, not the conclusion. Incorrect.

Correct Answer Choice (E) Global warming probably will not produce more frequent and intense tropical storms. This is a good paraphrasing of the conclusion, which contains referential phrasing: “This prediction is unlikely to be born out.” What prediction? “That it would cause more frequent and intense tropical storms.” Again, we have embedded referential phrasing. What’s the “it”? Global warming. So, the conclusion is that the prediction that global warming will cause more frequent and intense tropical storms is unlikely to be borne out. (E) is a good paraphrase of that.

Lessons to review
Referentials
Context or Other People's Position

causal factors - warning temp and instability in wind flow both affect tropical storms