Videocassette recorders (VCRs) enable people to watch movies at home on videotape. ββββββ βββ βββ ββββ ββ ββ βββββ ββββββββ ββββ βββββ ββββ ββ ββββββ βββ ββ βββ βββ βββββ ββββββββ ββ βββββββ βββββββ ββββββββββ ββββββ β βββ ββββββββ ββββββββββ ββββββ ββ ββ ββ βββββ ββββββββ ββββ βββββ ββββ ββββ βββββββββ ββββββ
The author hypothesizes that owning a VCR prompts people to go to the movie theater more. She bases this on a correlation: people who tend to go to the movies more often also own a VCR.
This is a cookie-cutter βcorrelation does not imply causationβ flaw, where the author sees a positive correlation and jumps to the conclusion that one thing causes the other, without ruling out alternative hypotheses. Specifically, she overlooks two key alternatives:
(1) The causal relationship could be reversedβmaybe going to movies more causes people to get VCRs, not the other way around.
(2) Some other, underlying factor could be causing the correlationβmaybe thereβs something that causes people to both go to the movies and buy VCRs. (Maybe they simply like movies in general?)
The argument is most vulnerable ββ βββββββββ ββ βββ βββββββ ββββ ββ
concludes that a βββββ ββββ ββ βββββ βββββββ ββ βββ ββββ βββββββ ββ ββββββββ ββ βββ βββββ
cites, in support ββ βββ βββββββββββ ββββββββ ββββ ββ ββββββββββββ ββββ βββββ βββββββββββ ββββ ββ ββββββββ
fails to establish ββββ βββ βββββββββ βββββββββββ ββ βββββ βββ ββββββ βββ βββ ββββ ββββββ βββββββ ββ ββββ βββββ ββββββ
takes a condition ββββ ββ ββββββ ββββββββββ βββ ββββββββββ ββ β βββββββ ββββββββββ ββ ββ β βββββββββ ββββ βββββββββ ββββ ββ βββ βββ ββββ ββββββββββ ββ βββββ
bases a broad βββββ βββββ βββ ββββββββ ββ ββββββ ββ βββββββ ββ β ββββββββββ βββββββ βββ ββββββ ββ ββββββ ββββ ββββββββ βββββββ ββββ β βββββ ββββββββββ ββ ββββββ βββββββ