Support For any given ticket in a 1000-ticket lottery, it is reasonable to believe that that ticket will lose. ██████ ██ ██ ██████████ ██ ███████ ████ ██ ██████ ████ ████
The author concludes that it’s likely no item in a set will have a property (being a winning ticket). His reasoning is that each individual item (lottery ticket) is unlikely to have that property.
This is the cookie-cutter flaw of confusing the properties of a part with properties of the whole. Just because each individual lottery ticket is unlikely to be a winner, it doesn’t mean that the lottery as a whole is unlikely to have a winner.
Which one of the following ████████ ██████ █████████ ████ ███████ ██ ███ ██████ █████████ ██ ███ ████████ ██████
It is reasonable ██ ███████ ███ ███ ████████ █████ ███████ ████ ████ ██ ████ ███ ██ ██ ████ ██ ██ ██ ██████████ ██ ███████ ████ ██ ███ ████ █████ ██ ██████
When the chances ██ █ ███████ █████ ███████ ███ ████ ███ ███ ███ ██ █████ ██ ██ ██████████ ██ ███████ ████ ████ █████ ████ ████ ██ ██ ██ ██████████ ██ ███████ ████ ██ ███ █████ ████ ████ █████ ███ ████
It is unreasonable ██ ███████ ████ ████ ███████████ ████ █████ ████ ████ ██ ██████ ██ ██ ██ ██████████ ██ ███████ ████ ████ █████ ████████
It is reasonable ██ ███████ ████ ██ ███ ████ ██████ ████ ██ █ █████ ████ ███ ██████ ███ ████ ████ ████ ██ ██████ ██ ██ █ ████ ███ ██████ ██ █████ ███ ████ ████ █████ ██ ███ ████████ ██ ██ ██████████ ██ ███████ ████ ██ ████ ████ ██ █████ ███ ████ ████ ██ ██ ████████
For any given █████ ██ █████████████ █████████ ███ ███████ ██████ ██ ███ ██████ ██ ██ ██ ██████████ ██ ███████ ████ ██ ███ ██ ████ █████ ████ ███ ██ ███████ ███ █████ █████