Support A rise in the percentage of all 18-year-olds who were recruited by the armed services of a small republic between 1980 and 1986 correlates with a rise in the percentage of young people who dropped out of high school in that republic. █████ ████████████ ██ ███ ████████ ███ █████████ ██████ ████ ██████ █████████ ██ ████ ██████ █████████ ███ ███████████ █████ ██ ███ ██████████ ████ ███ ██████████ ███████████ █████ ███ ████████████ ██████ █████████████ ██ ███████████ █████ ███ ████ ██████ █████████
The author hypothesizes that a small republic’s military recruitment rate for 18-year-olds is largely dependent on the recruitment rate for high school dropouts. This hypothesis is based on an observed correlation over 6 years: as the proportion of high school dropouts increased, so did the recruitment rate for 18-year-olds. Additionally, 18-year-olds in the republic are usually either high school graduates or dropouts.
The author assumes that just because the proportion of dropouts and the recruitment rate for 18-year-olds increased at the same time, most 18-year-old military recruits are dropouts. In other words, the author assumes that the correlation was caused by the military being able to recruit more dropouts, and that they weren’t instead recruiting more graduates.
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