This does not explain why Panitch lost the election despite winning the poll. If anything, Panitch having a higher percentage of supporters who can vote makes the loss even harder to explain.

If another candidate dropped out of the race, then perhaps their supporters voted for Yeung instead. This could explain why a poll conducted before Mulhern’s exit would differ from the election’s outcome.

If Panitch’s staff designed the poll questions, then it’s possible that they were worded in a biased or leading way. This could skew the data, possibly explaining why the poll’s results differed from the election’s.

If Panitch’s supporters generally viewed the election as less important than Yeung’s, then it’s possible that many of them didn’t actually end up voting. Yeung’s supporters turning out in greater numbers could explain why the poll’s results differed from the election’s.

If fewer of Yeung’s supporters were available to respond to the poll at the time and place it was conducted, then the results of the poll would likely be skewed in favor of Panitch, which could explain why its results differed from the election’s.