PT127.S3.Q24 > Question

SECTION 1 · lr

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SECTION 2 · lr

SECTION 3 · lr

SECTION 4 · rc

PASSAGE 1

Question 1 Question 2 Question 3 Question 4 Question 5 Question 6 Question 7

PASSAGE 2

Question 8 Question 9 Question 10 Question 11 Question 12 Question 13 Question 14 Question 15

PASSAGE 3

Question 16 Question 17 Question 18 Question 19 Question 20 Question 21

PASSAGE 4

Question 22 Question 23 Question 24 Question 25 Question 26 Question 27

The argument claims that past trends will continue to hold in the near future. It predicts that a future event will not occur (the local radio station will not win this year’s ratings race) based on what’s happened in the past (the station has not finished better than fifth in the past ten years). It also notes that the conditions that could potentially enable the event to occur have not been met (the radio station hasn’t changed its format or personnel).

Mismatched premises and conclusion. This concludes that all members of a group (swans) share a trait (white) because all members of a sample do (every swan I have seen). The stimulus, however, makes a future prediction based on past occurrences.

This reasoning is flawed because a fair coin has a 50/50 chance of being heads, so there’s no grounds for predicting that the next flip is likely to be heads. The stimulus, in contrast, appeals to a past trend that is not merely coincidental.

This concludes that an individual entity (Leo) has a trait (mammal) because it belongs to a group (lions) whose members all have that trait. The stimulus, however, makes a future prediction based on past occurrences.

This concludes that past trends (stock prices being lower on Monday) will continue to hold in the near future (they will be lower this coming Monday too). This parallels the stimulus’s future prediction.

This appeals to a necessary condition for being a lifeguard (being a trained swimmer) to infer that the next lifeguard will also have to meet that necessary condition. In contrast, the stimulus bases a future prediction on past trends.

PrepTest 127 - Section 3 - Question 24

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