Support If Juan went to the party, it is highly unlikely that Maria would have enjoyed the party. ███ ██ ████ ██ ██████ ███ ████ █████ ███ █████ ███ ██████ ██████████ ██ ██ ██████ ████████ ████ ████ ███ ██ ███ ██████
The author's conclusion is that it's unlikely Juan was at a party. Why? Because if Juan had been at the party, it would be unlikely Maria would have enjoyed the party—but Maria did enjoy the party.
To find the method of reasoning, we first need to describe the abstract pattern underlying the argument. Having done so, we'll then be able to find a matching argument in the answer choices. Boiling down the argument to an abstract structure, it looks like this:
Juan attended → unlikelyMaria enjoyed
Maria enjoyed
______
unlikelyJuan attended
So we're looking for three elements for the correct answer: a premise claiming that if one event occurs, another is unlikely; a premise affirming that the latter event occurred; and a conclusion that the first event is unlikely.
Keep in mind, the order of these elements is less important: the right elements out of order still make up the same logical structure. It will probably be straightforward to eliminate several answer choices that clearly don't match this structure, but we might end up with two possible answers that are hard to choose between. At that point, it's important to examine each option closely so we can choose one based on the exact details of the argument.
The pattern of reasoning in ███ ████████ █████ ██ ████ ███████ ██ ████ ██ █████ ███ ██ ███ ██████████
According to the ██████████ ███ █████ █████ ██ ███ ██████ ██████████ ████ ██ █████ ██████ ██ ███████ ███ ██ ███ ████ ██ ████ ████████ ████ ███ ███████ █████ ██ ██ ██ ████ ███ ██████ ██ ████ ████████ ███ ███ ███ ███████████
(A) appeals to a probability to make a prediction about the future. The stimulus appeals to an outcome to draw a conclusion about what probably occurred in the past, so it's not a match.
Kapinski, our new █████████ ██ ████████ █████████ ███ ████████ █████ █████████ ███ ████ ██████ ███ ████ █████████ ███ █████████
(B) references a trait common to a group to infer something about a member of that group. The stimulus refers to an expected outcome to draw a conclusion about what probably occurred in the past. These two don't match.
If the lottery ████ █████ ███ ██████ ███ ███ ███ ███████ █████ ███ ████ ████ ██████ ██ ███ ███ █████ █████ ████ ██████ █████ ████ ████ ██████ ██ ███ ███ ███████ ██ ██ ████ ███████ ███ ███████ ███ ████████ ███████
At a glance, (C) looks like it might match the stimulus. That means we need to take a closer look so we can determine whether each detail matches. And that's easier if we abstract the argument into a pattern:
lottery fair → unlikelywinner won
lottery unfair → likelywinner won
______
unlikelylottery fair
This is similar but not the same as the stimulus: note the different premise about what would be likely if the lottery were unfair. (C) doesn't match all the details so isn't correct.
If Clarissa missed ███ ███ ██████ ██ ██ █████ ████████ ████ ███ █████ ████ ██████ ██ ████ ██ █████ ███ ██ ██ █████ ████████ ████ ████████ ██████ ███ ████ █████ ███ ████████ ███ ██ ████ ██ ████ ██████
On first glance, (D) looks like it could match the stimulus. So let's take a closer look so we can determine whether each detail matches. To help us do so, we can abstract the argument into a pattern:
missed bus → unlikelywork on time
work on time
______
unlikelymissed bus
These elements exactly match the stimulus in logical structure. Although the elements are presented in a different order, their logical relationship is the same.
This year's election ████ ████████ ██ █████ ███ █████ ████████ ████ ███ ███ ██████ ███ ████████ ██ ███████ ███ █████ ████ ███ ███ ███ █████████
(E) appeals to a probability to predict the future, and concludes with a definite prediction. The stimulus appeals to an observed outcome to conclude probably occurred in the past, which is a different method of reasoning.
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