Each of the candidates in this year's mayoral election is a small-business owner. ████ ██████████████ ██████ ███ █████████ █████████ █████████ ██ █████████ ███████ █████ ███ ██████ █████████ ██ ██ █ ████ ██████ ███ ████ ██ ███ ██████████ ██ ████ ██████ ███████ ████████ ████ ███ ██████ █████████ ██ ██ █ ████ ██████
The premises in this argument create a conditional chain, as shown below. Because all candidates are small business-owners, and most small-business owners are competent managers, and all competent managers have the necessary skills, the author concludes that most candidates have the necessary skills.
This argument rests on a misunderstanding of the quantifier “most.” Imagine there are 10 candidates for mayor, and there are 1,000 small-business owners. Let’s say 501 of the small-business owners are competent managers and therefore possess the necessary skills. That means there are 499 small-business owners who don’t possess the necessary skills. But remember, there are only 10 candidates for mayor! All 10 of those candidates could fall into the group of 499 small-business owners who lack the necessary skills.
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