Self-study
Support When surveyed about which party they would like to see in the legislature, 40 percent of respondents said Conservative, 20 percent said Moderate, and 40 percent said Liberal. ██ ███ ██████ ███████ ███ █████████ ██ ███ ████████ ████ ████ ████████ █████ ████ ██ ███ █ ███████████ ████ ██ ███████ ██ ███████ █████████████ ██ ███████ █████████ ███ ██ ███████ ████████
Summarize Argument
In a survey asking which party they want in the legislature, 40% said C, 20% said M, and 40% said L.
The author concludes that if the survey results are reliable, then most citizens would like to see a legislature that is roughly 40% C, 20% M, and 40% L.
Identify and Describe Flaw
The survey asked which party respondents would like to see in the legislature. It didn’t ask what % of the legislature should belong to each party. The author interprets the proportions that said they wanted to see a particular party in the legislature as relevant to the distribution of each party in the legislature.
Another framing of the flaw is that the author mistakenly thinks the overall breakdown of preferences for Conservative, Moderate, and Liberal legislatures is something that applies to most citizens’ individual preferences for the makeup of the legislature.
16.
Which one of the following ████ ██████████ █████████ █ ████ ██ ███ █████████ ██ ███ █████████
a
The argument uses ████████ █████ ███ ██████ █████ ██ ███████ ██ ████ █ ██████████ █████ ███ ███████ ██████ ███
The conclusion isn’t about what “should” be the case. The conclusion is simply a statement about the preferences of most citizens.
b
The argument draws █ ██████████ ████ ██████ ████████ █ ███████ █████████ ██ █████ ██ ███
(B) describes circular reasoning. The conclusion is not a restatement of the premise, because the premise is a statement describing the results of a survey. The conclusion is not a description of the results of a survey.
c
The argument takes ███ ███████ ████ ███ ███████████ ██ █ █████ ██ █ █████ ███ ███ ███████████ ██ ████ ██████████ ███████ ██ ███ ██████
The 40/20/40 preference in the survey is the preference of the group of survey participants. But the author mistakenly thinks this 40/20/40 preference applies to individual participants in the survey.
d
The argument fails ██ ████████ ████ ███ ██████ ███████ █████ ████ ████ ██████████ ██ ███ █████████ ██████ ██ ███ ███████████ ███ █████████ ███ ███████
The conclusion starts with “if the survey results are reliable” — this means the conclusion doesn’t assume the results are reliable. It makes a statement about what would be the case IF the results are reliable.
e
The argument uses ████████ ████ ████████ ████ █████ █████████ ██ ████ █ █████████ ██████████ ███████████
The conclusion uses the word “roughly” when describing the 40/20/40 breakdown. So the argument doesn’ draw a “precisely quantified” conclusion. A statement of “rough” numbers is not precise.