Evidently, Conclusion watching too much television can lead people to overestimate the risks that the world poses to them. β ββββββ βββββ βββββ ββββ ββββββ βββ ββββ ββββββ ββ βββββ ββββ ββββ ββββ ββ βββββββ ββ β βββββββ ββββββββ ββ ββββ βββββ ββ βββββββββββββ ββββββ ββ ββββββββββ ββββ ββ ββββ ββ ββββ
The stimulus starts with the author's conclusion, the general claim that watching too much TV leads people to overestimate the risks they face in the world. Only afterwards are we given the basis for this claim: the author cites a study showing a positive correlation between people watching more TV than average and people believing theyβll be victims of natural disasters. The conclusion in the first sentence is a hypothesis offering an explanation for this correlation.
The author concludes causation from correlation, hypothesizing that watching an above-average amount of TV is what makes people more likely to think they will be victims of natural disasters. Thus, the author assumes that the causation isn't the other way around, with people's nervousness about natural disasters causing them to watch more TV, or due to some third factor β general anxiety about the world, for example β causing both trends.
To get to her conclusion, the author also assumes that watching an above-average amount of TV is the same as watching "too much" TV, and that people who think they are likely to be victims of natural disasters are actually "overestimating" risks. If, for example, people who watch less TV actually underestimate the risk of natural disasters, then it's possible that people who watch more TV than average just have an accurate perception of the risk of natural disasters.
Which one of the following, ββ βββββ ββββ βββββββ βββ βββββββββ ββββββ
Many people overestimate βββ βββββββ ββββ βββ βββββ βββββ ββ βββββ ββββββββββ ββ βββ ββββββ ββ ββββββββββ ββββ ββββββ
Remember that on the LSAT, "many" is an indefinite quantity largely equivalent to "some." So this answer choice doesn't tell us very much. Even if "many" here means most or even all people, it could still be true that watching too much TV does cause people to overestimate risks. For the subset of "all people" who watch too much TV, watching too much TV is what causes those people to overestimate risks. There would just be other causes leading other people, who don't watch too much TV, to also overestimate risks. This answer choice doesn't weaken the argument.
Answer is attractive because it seems to (but doesn't actually) contradict the premises or conclusion.
A person is ββββ ββββββ ββ ββββ ββ ββ ββββ ββββ ββ βββββ ββ βββββββ βββββββββ ββ ββββ ββββββ βββββββ ββ βββββββββββββ ββββββ ββ ββββββββββ ββββ ββ ββββ ββββββ βββββββ β βββββββββββββ ββββββ ββ βββββββββββ
If anything, this strengthens the authorβs argument. This tells us that the people who watch more TV than average likely are overestimating their risk of being natural disaster victims, since they are likely to live in areas less prone to natural disasters and yet are more likely than others to believe they are at risk of natural disasters. So this doesn't weaken the author's reasoning.
Answers that, if they have any effect, do the opposite of what we want (weaken when we're trying to strengthen, or strengthen when we're trying to weaken).
People who watch β βββββββββββββ ββββββ ββ ββββββββββ ββββ ββ ββββ β ββββββ ββββββββ ββββ ββ βββ ββββββββββ ββββ ββββ ββββ ββ βββββββ ββ β βββββββ βββββββββ
This doesn't weaken the argument. This answer choice could be completely consistent with the author's hypothesis that watching too much TV causes people to overestimate the risk of natural disasters. If people who watch below-average amounts of TV have an accurate risk assessment, then the fact that people who watch above-average TV have a higher risk assessment than what is accurate might support the idea of a causal connection between watching more TV and overestimating risk.
People who are ββββ ββββββββ βββββ βββ βββββ βββββ ββ βββββββ βββββββββ ββββ ββ ββββ ββββββ ββββ ββββββββ ββ ββββ βββ βββββ ββββ ββ ββββββββ βββββββββββ
Knowing that people who are "well informed" about natural disaster risk tend to get their information from other sources than TV doesn't weaken the idea that watching too much TV can cause people to overestimate risk β i.e., to be misinformed about risk. This answer choice is perfectly consistent with the author's hypothesis.
A person is ββββ ββββββ ββ βββββ ββ βββββββββββββ ββββββ ββ ββββββββββ ββ ββββ ββββββ βββββ ββ ββ ββββ ββββ ββ βββββ ββ βββββββ βββββββββ ββββ ββ ββββ ββββββ βββββ ββ ββ ββββ ββββ ββ ββββ
This weakens the argument. This tells us that people who watch more TV than average also tend to live in areas more prone to natural disasters. This creates the possibility that living in an area more prone to natural disasters is what causes those people both to watch more TV and to think they are likely to be natural disaster victims, which would weaken the author's causal claim. This also undermines the claim that these people "overestimate" the risk of being natural disaster victims, since their perception of the risk might be accurate for the regions where they live.
Weaken: Introduce or support an alternate explanation for a phenomenon.
Strengthen: Helps to eliminate an alternate explanation for a phenomenon.