Tariffs on particular products tend to protect the small percentage of the population that works in industries that make those products while hurting everyone else through higher costs. █████ ████ ████ ██ ████ ████ ██████ ██████ ████ ████████ ██ ███████████ █████ ██ ████ ██████ ██ ██ █████████ ██ ████ █████ ███████ █████ ████████
The author concludes that politicians would be more likely to be reelected if they voted against tariffs on particular products.
Why?
Because most people oppose tariffs on particular products.
The author assumes that a politician who oppose tariffs is more likely to win more votes than she would lose by taking that position. This overlooks the possibility that tariff-supporters might be much more likley to vote than tariff-opposers. Or tariff-supporters might be much more likely to base their vote on who supports tariffs than the tariff-opposers are to base their vote on who opposes tariffs.
Which one of the following ██ ██ ██████████ ██ █████ ███ ████████ ███████
Supporters of tariffs ██ ██████████ ████████ ███ ███ █████████████ ████ ██████ ████ █████████ ██ ████ █████ ████ ███ █ ██████████ ██ ███ ████████████ █████ ██ ████ ██████
Politicians always vote █████████ ██ ████ ██ ████ ██████ ██ ███ ████ ██████████
Politicians should support ████ ███████ ████████ █████ ████ ███████ █████ ██ ████ ██████ ███████ ████ ██████ ████ ███████ ██ ██████████ █████████
Politicians should never ███████ ████████ ████ █████ ████ █ █████ ██████████ ██ ███ ███████████
People who would ██ ████ ██ ███████ █████████ ████ ████ ████ █████ ██ ████ ██ █████