PT148.S2.P2.Q12 > Analytics

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This passage was adapted from an article written by three economists.

Phenomenon · The Great Migration

Between 1915 and 1960, 40% of African Americans migrated north.

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3 Historical Causes · WWI increased labor demand in North while cuting off European immigration; infestation ruined crops in South reducing labor demand there

This is what kicked off the Great Migration.

Question · But why did it continue?

And accelerate when the initial causes started to disappear?

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Hypothesis · Migration develops its own momentum

Migration encourages future migration by making it easier to migrate.

Rule Premise · Economists' cost-benefit rule for migration

People migrate if earnings are high enough to offset the costs of moving.

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Premise · Cost of migration: uncertainty; travel; settling in

Three costs of migration: 1. uncertainty about housing and labor-market conditions; 2. cost of time and money of moving; 3. settling in

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Premise · All three costs were reduced for later migrants

Previous migrants could pass information to reduce uncertainty and help new migrants settle in. New migrants could travel with previous migrants to reduce the cost of moving.

Premise · Previous migrants further reduced costs

Previous migrants also provided new migrants with temporary housing, food, and credit. Also provided a cultural cushion for later migrants.

Passage Style

Phenomenon-hypothesis (RC)

Single position

12.

The passage provides the most ███████ ███ █████ ███ ██ ███ █████████ ███████████

The highest-paying agricultural ████ ██ ███ █████ █████ ██ ████ ███ ███ ███ ████ ████ ███ █████████████ █████████████ ████ ██ ███ ██████

Unsupported. We know that, in general, Northern manufacturing jobs paid more than Southern agricultural jobs, but it could be the case that some (or even just one) Southern agricultural jobs paid more than Northern manufacturing jobs.

The overall cost ██ █████████ ████ ███ █████ ██ ███ █████ ██ ███ █████████ ███████ ███ █████ ███ ███ ████████ ████████ ███████ █████ ████ ████ ██ ███ ██████████████ ████ █████████ ███ ████ ██ ██████ █████

Unsupported. The passage doesn’t indicate that migrating was less costly for earlier migrants than later migrants. Actually, P4 illustrates the ways that later migrants might have benefitted from reduced overall costs.

The North–South income ███ █████████ ██████ ████ ███████ ██ ███ ████████ ██ ██████ ███ █████ ██ ███ █████ ███ ███ ████████ ██ ██████ ███ █████ ██ ███ ██████

This is supported in P1, where we see that World War I increased labor demand in the North, and the boll weevil infestation reduced labor demand in the South. This drove the income gap that triggered the Great Migration.

89%

The average wages ██ ███ ██████ ██████ ████████████ █████ ████ ███ ███████ █████ ██ ███ ██████ ████ ███████ ██████ ███ ███ ███████ ██████ ███ █████ ███ ██████

Unsupported. We actually see that labor demand decreased in the South in the 1910s and 1920s, which may have caused wages to decrease. Also, nothing in the passage indicates that average wages in the south were steady for all workers during this period.

Most migrants in ███ █████ █████████ ████ ██ █████ ███ ████ ████ ██ ███ █████ ██ ███████ ████ ███ ███████████ ██ █████ ██████ ███ ████ ███████████ █████████ ██ █████

Unsupported. We know that some migrants made these trips, but the passage doesn’t indicate that most migrants did this.

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