Self-study
Community organizer: Support Before last year's community cleanup, only 77 of the local residents signed up to participate, but then well over 100 actually participated. ████ █████ ██ █████████ ████ ██████ ██ ██ ████████████ █████ ███ █████████ ███████ ████ ██ █ ███████ ██ ██ ████ ██ █████ ███ █████████████ ██ ███ ██ █████████ ████ ████ ██████ ███████ ████ ██ █ ████████
Summarize Argument
The author concludes that this year’s cleanup will be a success. This is based on the fact that if we get at least 100 participants, then the cleanup will be a success. In addition, this year, 85 residents signed up to participate. Last year, only 77 signed up to participate, but over 100 actually participated.
Identify and Describe Flaw
The author assumes that, since last year’s actual turnout was higher than the number who signed up, this year’s actual turnout will also be higher than the number who signed up. This overlooks the possibility that what happened last year won’t happen this year.
1.
The reasoning in the community ███████████ ████████ ██ ████ ██████████ ██ █████████ ██ ███ ███████ ████ ███ ████████
a
generalizes about the ███████ ██ ██ █████ █████ ██ █ ██████ ███████████ ██ █ ███████ █████████
The premises describe a single observation of a similar situation (last year’s turnout exceeded the # who signed up). But this doesn’t prove anything about the turnout this year.
b
takes for granted ████ ██████ ███ ████████████ ██ ████ ██████ ███████ ████ ███████████ ████ ████
The author doesn’t assume that the same people will participate. The argument is just about the number of people who will participate; those people can be different from participants in the past.
c
confuses a condition ████ ██ ████████ ███ ██ ███████ ████ ███ ████ ██ ██████████ ███ ████ ███████
There is no condition required for an outcome. We do have a premise telling us that having at least 100 participants is sufficient for the outcome of success. The author doesn’t think having at least 100 participants is necessary for success.
d
overlooks the possibility ████ ███ ███████ ████ ███████ ████████████ ███ ███ ███ █████████ ██ ███ █████████
This possibility doesn’t weaken the argument. The cleanup will be a success if it gets at least 100 participants. We have no reason to think where those participants live has any impact on the reasoning.
e
defines a term ██ ████ █ ███ ██ ██ ██████ ████ ████████ ███ ████████ ██ ████ ██ ██████████ █ ████████ ███████
The author doesn’t define any terms. The author uses a conditional that establishes if we get at least 100 participants, the cleanup will be a success. This is not a “definition” of success. Also, the author doesn’t assume the outcome of the cleanup must be positive.