Self-study
Newspaper: Conclusion Increases in produce prices apparently have led to an increase in the planting of personal gardens. ███ ███ ███████ ██████ ████ █████████ ████ ████████ █████ █████████ ██ ██████ ██ ███████ ██ ███ ████ ████ ██████ █ ████ ██ █████ ███ █████ ██ ███████ ███████
Summarize Argument: Phenomenon-Hypothesis
The newspaper’s conclusion is a hypothesis about the effect of increased produce prices: they’ve resulted in an increase in gardening. To support this hypothesis, the newspaper points to a correlation: during the same year that produce prices rose, sales for two major seed companies also rose.
Notable Assumptions
Based on a mere correlation between produce prices and seed sales, the author concludes that produce prices are responsible for an increase in gardening.
First, note that the correlation doesn’t actually involve planting gardens. It’s a correlation between seed sales and prices. So the newspaper makes a link assumption that increased seeds sales imply more personal gardens are being planted. If it turned out seed sales aren’t a good indicator of the number of personal gardens being planted, that would weaken the argument.
The newspaper also assumes there’s not some alternative explanation for those increased seed sales. If it turned out that something else besides rising prices is causing more seeds to be sold by those two companies, that would weaken the argument.
The newspaper also assumes that there’s not an alternative explanation for the correlation itself. If it turned out that produce prices and seed sales both increase in tandem even though rising prices don’t cause seed sales to rise, that would weaken the argument.
Lastly, the newspaper draws its conclusion based on observations of only two seed companies. It assumes those companies are a representative sample of what’s going on in the seed industry generally. If it turned out that those companies aren’t representative, that would weaken the argument.
22.
Which one of the following, ██ █████ ████ █████████ ███████ ███ ███████████ █████████
a
Increases in produce ██████ ███ ███████ ██████ ██ █████████ ██ ███ ████ █████ ██ ████████ █████ ██ ███████
The cause of increased produce prices provides no info on whether those increased prices have, or have not, had an effect on gardening.
b
The average personal ██████ ██ ████ ███████ ████ ██ ███ ███████ ███ ████ ███████████ ███████ ███████ ██ ██████ ██████████
This says that decades ago, the average personal garden was larger. Now, the average personal garden is smaller. But what do smaller personal gardens suggest about the cause of increased produce prices? Nothing. In addition, even though this answer indicates that inexpensive produce started to become available decades ago, we still know from a premise that there was a spike in the price of produce last year. Whatever the prices were decades ago doesn't help explain the cause of that recent produce spike. Furthermore, if you think that smaller personal gardens on average suggests that there hasn't been an increase in the "planting" of personal gardens, that's unwarranted. Smaller gardens could just as reasonably indicate that many more people have begun to plant gardens.
Directionally wrong
Directionally wrong
Answers that, if they have any effect, do the opposite of what we want (weaken when we're trying to strengthen, or strengthen when we're trying to weaken).
c
Community gardens report ████ ███████ █████ ███ ███████ ██████ █████ ████ ██████ ██████ ████ ███ ████ █████
Two problems. First, this is about community gardens, but the the argument is about personal gardens. Second, this suggests that interest in community gardening has increased, but offers no insight into whether the actual planting of such gardens has increased or whether produce prices are, or are not, the underlying cause.
d
Personal gardens are ███████ ███████ ██ ████████ ██████████
Without knowing whether there’s been an economic downturn, we can’t assess the effect (D) has on the argument Also, even if there has been a downturn, produce prices could still be causing the rising popularity of gardens. Maybe, during economic downturns, produce prices increase, which in turn makes gardening more popular. So (D) doesn’t change the likelihood that higher prices cause more gardening. It has no effect on the argument.
Failed alternate explanation
Failed alternate explanation
Weaken Qs: Answers that try to introduce an alternate explanation, but fall short, or try to explain a different phenomenon.
Strengthen Qs: Answers that try to eliminate an alternate explanation, but fall short, or try to eliminate an explanation for a different phenomenon.
e
A large retail ████ ███████ ████ ███ ██ ████████ █████ ████ █████
This provides an alternative hypothesis for the increased seed sales at the two largest seed companies. The rise in sales has nothing to do with increasing produce prices or increased gardening activity. Those two companies are just scooping up customers from their out-of-business competitor.
This also suggests that maybe the two largest seed companies aren’t a representative sample of what’s actually going on in the seed industry more broadly.
Alternate explanation
Alternate explanation
Weaken: Introduce or support an alternate explanation for a phenomenon.
Strengthen: Helps to eliminate an alternate explanation for a phenomenon.