Support The average tax refund received by taxpayers who use tax preparation services is about 50 percent higher than the average refund received by those who do not. ██ ██ ███ ████ █ █████ ███████ ███ ██████ ███ █ ███ ███████████ ████████
The argument cites a positive correlation between using tax preparation services and receiving larger tax refunds. It then implicitly assumes that using such services causes the larger refunds, concluding that people who want bigger refunds should therefore use tax prep services.
This is a cookie-cutter example of a correlation-causation fallacy. There are several plausible alternative explanations for the observed correlation. For example, people who expect large refunds may be more likely to seek assistance from a tax prep service. Or, a third factor—like higher income—could both increase the likelihood of using tax prep services and result in larger refunds.
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