Researchers in South Australia estimate changes in shark populations inhabiting local waters by monitoring what is termed the “catch per unit effort” (CPUE). ███ ████ ███ ███ ███████ ██ █████ ██ ███ ██████ ██ █████ ██████ ████ ██████████ █████████████ █████ █████ ███ ████ ███ ████ █████████ ██ ████ ███ ███ ███ ██ ███ ██████ █████ ████ ███ ████ ███ █ ██████████ ███████ ██ █████ ███ ████████ ██████ █████████ ██████████ ███ ██████████ ██ ████ ███████ ██ ███ ██████ ██████ █████ █████████ ████ ██ ██ █████████████ ███ ████ ██████
Let’s build this up backward. The stem says we need to weaken the argument. Well, here’s the argument:
Premise: The CPUE has been constant since 1973.
________
Conclusion: The shark population has been constant since 1973.
To weaken this argument, we’re brainstorming possible worlds in which the shark population has changed even though the CPUE stayed the same. For that, we need to know wtf the CPUE is. I think of it like this:
One dudebro. One hour. One km of net. How many sharks can he catch?
The CPUE establishes a standard unit of trying, then measures how many sharks you get when you try that hard. If dudebro catches a ton of sharks, the CPUE is a big number and researchers figure that means there’s a bunch of sharks swimming around. If dudebro catches very few sharks, the CPUE is a small number and researchers figure that means there’s only a few sharks swimming around.
Now we can frame our brainstorming more specifically:
We need to imagine possible worlds in which dudebro has been catching the same number of sharks, but the shark population has changed.
Side Note: A number of notable domain restrictions should hover in the back of your mind. All the stimulus’ claims are about South Australia. They’re about one specific species of shark. These restrictions mean info about other regions or other species is irrelevant. The CPUE measures sharks per boat and per hour and per km of net. This means suggestions that more boats have been fishing for more hours or using bigger nets are irrelevant.
Analysis by MichaelWright
Which one of the following, ██ █████ ████ █████████ ███████ ███ █████████
The waters around █████ █████████ ███ ███ ████ ████ ██ ███ █████ █████ ████ ██████████ ███████ ██ █████ ██ ██████
The sharks that ███ ███ ████ ██████████ ██ █████ ███ █████ ████ ████ ██ ██████ ██ ███ ████ ████ ██ █████ ████ █████ ████ ███ ███ ███████ ███ ████ █████ ████ ████ █████
A significant threat ██ █████ ████████████ ██ ████████ ██ ██████████ █████ ████████ ██ █████████████ ████████████ ████ ███████ ████ ████████ ██████ ██ ████ ████████ ███ █████ █████
Most of the ██████ ████████ ██ ███████ █████ ███████████ █████ ███ ███████ ██ ██████ ████ ███ ██ █████ ███ ███ ███ ██████ ██ ██████████ ███████
Since 1980 commercial █████████████ █████ ████ ████ █████████████ ██████████ █████████ ████ ███████ ████ ██ ██████ ██████ ████ ███████ █████████