Self-study
Statistician: Support Changes in the Sun’s luminosity correlate exceedingly well with average land temperatures on Earth. █████████████ ████████ ██ ████████ ███████ █████ ████████████████████ ███████ ██████████ ███████████ ████████ ████ ████████████ ██ ██████
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Structure: Counter-Argument
The statistician argues that the correlation between changes in the Sun's luminosity and average land temperatures on Earth reveals causation: the Sun's luminosity "essentially controls" Earth's land temperatures. The statistician notes that this isn't the "accepted opinion" among meteorologists.
The meteorologist rejects the statistician's argument. In support, she cites the opinion of "any professional meteorologist" that in a complicated system like the climate, no single variable controls any "significant aspect."
Analysis: Method of Reasoning
The meteorologist's argument rejects the statistician's argument apparently just on the basis that "any professional meteorologist" would disagree with the statistician's argument. You might think this is a weak response, given that the statistician is already aware of this: he has stated that his argument is contrary to "accepted opinion" among meteorologists. But for our purposes in this Method of Reasoning question, it's our job just to notice that the meteorologist uses this approach — she appeals to the broader opinion among meteorologists to support her rejection of the statistician's argument — and look for an answer choice that correctly describes this.
25.
The reasoning in the meteorologist’s ███████████████ ██ ████████████ ███████ ████ ████████
a
rejects a partial ████████████ ███ ███████ ██ ██ ██████████ ███ ████ ███████ ██ ██ ███ ████████
Incorrect. You might think this answer choice reflects the fact that, in the meteorologist's opinion, there are presumably more variables influencing land temperatures than just the sun's luminosity. In that sense, the statistician gestures at a partial explanation by pointing to the sun's luminosity as affecting land temperatures.
But remember that the statistician's full claim is that the sun's luminosity "essentially controls" Earth's land temperatures. This is a claim that the meteorologist certainly thinks is incorrect and therefore rejects. Indeed, note that the meteorologist never restates the statistician's claim and says that it is partially correct. We don't know if the meteorologist thinks the sun's luminosity contributes at all to variations in Earth's land temperatures or counts as a "partial explanation." The meteorologist's answer doesn't give us grounds to distinguish between an incorrect argument and a partially correct one, so we can't say that (A) is descriptively accurate.
b
fails to distinguish █████████ ████ █████ █████████████ ██ █ ██████████ ██████ ████ █████████ ████ █████ ████ ██ ████ ██ ███ ██████
Incorrect. For (B) to be correct, we would need to know more about what the meteorologist means by a "single variable," and whether that includes or excludes something like the sun's luminosity. But without that information, we have no reason to think that the meteorologist incorrectly classifies any of the phenomena under discussion.
c
calls into question ███ █████████ ██ █ ███████████ ████ ███ ████ ████ █████ ██ ████ ██ ███ ██ █████████ ███ ███████████
Incorrect. The meteorologist doesn't question the existence of the correlation mentioned by the statistician.
d
dismisses a hypothesis ██ ███ ███████ ████ ██ █████ ██ ████ ████ ███ ███████ ██ ██████████ ████████████
Incorrect. The meteorologist doesn't make any claims about whether the statistician's hypothesis deals with matters of "scientific significance" or not.
e
appeals to the █████████████████ ██ ██ ███████ ███████ ██████████ ███ █████ ██ █ ████████ ██████████████
This is correct. The meteorologist just appeals to what "any professional meteorologist" would say, without considering that the explicit point of the statistician's argument is to offer a case that goes against the general opinion of meteorologists — i.e., to offer a potential counterexample to the meteorological consensus. The meteorologist doesn't address whether this counterexample is valid or not.