Self-study
The cafeteria at Acme Company can offer only four main dishes at lunchtime, and the same four choices have been offered for years. ████████ ████████ █████████ ███ ███████ ██ █████ ██ ███ ██ ███ █████ ████ ██████ ███ ███ █████ ██████ █████ ████ ██████ █████ ████████ █████████ ████ ███ █████ ████ █████ ████████ ██ ███ █████████ █████ ██ ██████ ███ ██████████ ████████ █████████ ██████ ███████ ███ ██ ███ ███████ ██████ ██ █ █████████ ████ ██ ███ █████
Phenomenon-Hypothesis
Although the argument is phrased as a recommendation, its underlying structure is standard phenomenon-hypothesis reasoning:
Phenomenon: The new dish performed better during its first two days.
________
Hypothesis: The new dish is better in ways that will persist permanently.(Conclusion: The new dish will please customers more in the long term.)
So we’re just anticipating alternative causes – reasons why the dish performed better in days 1 and 2 that won’t persist in the long term. Anticipating novelty in particular is pretty reasonable here.
1.
The argument is most vulnerable ██ █████████ ██ ███ ███████ ████ ██ █████ ██ ████████
a
the proportion of ████ ███████ █████████ ███ █████████ ███ █████ ██ ███ ███████ █████████
This could work if the conclusion were about improving overall company morale or something else related to the entire company, but the conclusion here is just about pleasing the subset of cafeteria customers.
b
whether any of ███ ███████████ ████ ██ ███ █████████████ ██████ ███ ████████ █████████ ███ ████████ ██ ███ ██ ███ ███████ ████ ██████
This doesn’t give us reason to suspect the mushroom dish will stop performing well in the long term.
And wondering whether any ingredients overlap is kinda wild. Butter, flour, water, eggs – all these go in tons of very different dishes.
c
a desire for ███████ ██ █ ██████ ███ ██████████ ██████ ██ ████████ █████████ ██████ ███ ████ ██ ███ ███████
This proposes an alternative cause for the mushroom dish’s high performance on days 1 and 2 that won’t persist in the long term. People like new stuff, so they pick the new thing at first, but in a month or two the mushroom dish will lose its novelty.
d
what foods other ████ ████ ██████ ███ █████████ ███████ ██ █████████ ██ ███ █████████
The argument already controls for side dishes. Whatever other foods are offered besides main dishes, the mushroom dish still performed better than its competitors.
e
whether other meals ███████ █████ ███ ██████ ██ ███ ████ ███████ █████████
The argument already controls for other meals. Regardless of what, if anything, is being served for breakfast and dinner, the mushroom dish still performed better than its competitors during lunch.