Ellen Cassidy Loophole Drill Question

skywardharp

For drill question 12 on page 49. Wouldn't the valid conclusion be that Sophie is unlikely to be a person to know? As it is unlikely that her moon will stay in Virgo and if her moon doesn't stay in Virgo she will not have a cholesterol increase. I'm sure I am wrong but I am just not getting it.

canihazJD

Premise 1:
* AHRI study indicates there will be a 73% increase in SS's cholesterol
* if her moon stays virgo, this could increase her typos by 21% over next 3 years
* her moon staying virgo is highly unlikely

Premise 2:
* if you are an up and coming star on the brink of success, stars like SS who undergo cholesterol increases are some of the best people to know.

Conclusion:

If you are an up and coming star on the brink of success and the AHRI study is correct, SS is one of the best people to know.

@"Savannah P." said:
For drill question 12 on page 49. Wouldn't the valid conclusion be that Sophie is unlikely to be a person to know? As it is unlikely that her moon will stay in Virgo and if her moon doesn't stay in Virgo she will not have a cholesterol increase. I'm sure I am wrong but I am just not getting it.

The premises give you conditions for which certain stars would be good people to know, and also give you that SS falls into that category of if the AHRI study is correct. So if those conditions are met then she would be a good person to know.

Moon staying virgo likeliness doesn't link to anything besides typographical errors for which is is a sufficient condition. So if the moon doesn't stay virgo, her cholesterol increase (assuming the study is correct) will not cause typographical errors.

The point of those drills is to get you to see through all the extra distracting stuff and just extract those that allow you to make inferences. What you need out of these premises is:

SS is the start of a hit original series
If the AHRI is correct, SS cholest. will increase
If you are up and coming star, stars of hit original series who have cholesterol increases are the best people to know.

Hope that helps!