This is another way of teaching modus ponens, right?

Can anyone explain the flaw in a different way? The lotto example he gives makes sense to me, whereas teams competing does not.

In the lottery ticket example, it makes sense that even though someone has double the odds of winning in comparison to everyone else, they still have an extremely low chance of winning... I guess because of amount of tickets bought and that its random.

Whereas in the team example, even if a lot of teams are competing, if I have the best quality team, and the team thats the best is most likely to win, why is it flawed to conclude that my team will "almost certainly" win? Is it because "almost certainly" is basically saying guaranteed? Or some other issue with probability?

Please help!