PT35.S1.Q23 - rejecting a belief evidence

YZ

Hi all, this question comes from PT35, section 1, question 23, i chose E on this one. Can anyone share your thoughts on why E is incorrect?

I thought the author makes assumption that in order to survive, you need to have many beliefs, and then the statistician's rule is all about overall correctness of the total set of one's belief. So the author is implying if you want to survive, you need to have many correct beliefs, right? given the statistician's rule, this is not going to happen, so that is why they are incorrect.

Thanks in advance!
http://7sage.com/lsat_explanations/lsat-35-section-1-question-23/

paulfan2011

E is just irrelevant. One of the most important thing to get a good LR score is to anticipate the answer before reading the answer choices. For this question, it's rather difficult because the author's argument looks quite sound. The key here is to recognize the subject matter that the author is trying to critique: the surest way to increase the overall correctness of one's beliefs. The author basically says, if you follow the statisticians line of reasoning, then you cannot survive, which given his premises, is a valid conclusion to be drawn. But so what. The statistician is concerned with finding the surest way to increase the correctness of one's beliefs, he doesn't have to care what consequences it might lead. What if knowing the ultimate Truth is going to kill you, that does not make the ultimate Truth untrue, it's just probably better not to pursue it.