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Help: how to treat the LSAT's use of "Probably"?

BamboosproutBamboosprout Alum Member

When doing this question, I could not agree with JY's explanation no matter how many times I've heard it. I simply think his reasoning on why he eliminated answer choice A is incorrect. In absolute terms, the rain will definitely increase, because we know the proportion of precipitation as rain has also increased, so in relative terms too, rain has increased more compared to snow.

To me, this answer choice can only be eliminated because of the use of "probably" in both the answer choice and in the stimulus. How should I understand the use of probably, though?

Should I think of it as "in most cases", meaning, in more than 50% of the cases? In that case, I suppose that just like how when given A-most->B-most->C, we can't make any inferences between A and C, in this question, the two cases of "probably" disconnect the causal relationship in the argument, and therefore does not actually strengthen the argument?

What do you guys think of my reasoning, and my analysis on "probably"? The more I think about it, the more it makes sense, and I think as I was typing this out, I've convinced myself that this is the correct reasoning for eliminating A.

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