What will this admissions cycle be like?

Comments

• john1234-1 Alum Member

  December 2018 edited December 2018 426 karma

  I surmise it will all be speculation at this point. I'm not confident there is a way of knowing the answer to a question like this until the numbers start rolling in. But thanks for the post though, interesting stuff. I agree and have heard people argue for both sides of the coin argued as well. Maybe someone else has a better idea?
• 2 Likes

  LSAT_Wrecker Member ⭐

  December 2018 4850 karma

  As someone who used to forecast human behavior as part of my job, I take any prediction with a huge grain of salt. However, Spivey has one analysis of this cycle that I hope is on point.

  https://blog.spiveyconsulting.com/this-will-be-a-slow-cycle/
• john1234-1 Alum Member

  December 2018 426 karma

  Thanks @LSAT_Wrecker ! Didn't know this was out there.
• 1 Like

  Peaceofmind Alum Member

  December 2018 edited December 2018 446 karma

  I suspect that this cycle has smaller application pool, as some experts from PowerScore said, is because of the booming economy. However, the recession is coming, which might lead to more applicants wanting to stay in school the next few years. Law school can be a popular option. I remember there’s a LR question AC on this general concept of “staying school as being the standard response to depressive job market” but can’t remember from which PT.. lol
  What do you guys think?
• eRetaker Free Trial Member

  December 2018 2043 karma

  @KarateMaster said:
  I suspect that this cycle have smaller application pool, as some experts from PowerScore said, is because of the booming economy. However, the recession is coming, which might lead to more applicants wanting to stay in school the next few years. Law school can be a popular option. I remember there’s a LR question AC on this general concept of “staying school as being the standard response to depressive job market” but can’t remember from which PT.. lol
  What do you guys think?

  I think it will be a larger applicant pool purely due to the increase in GRE applicants but LSAT takers will be down and high scorers will also be down.

  Here is the real-time daily data from LSAC on applicants: https://report.lsac.org/VolumeSummaryOriginalFormat.aspx
• 2 Likes

  akistotle Member ⭐ 🍌🍌

  December 2018 9377 karma

  This is what LSAC says:

  as of November 1st, ABA applications are up 14.6% compared to last year at this time, and ABA applicants are up 17.6%.

  https://www.lsac.org/general/podcasts/podcast-nov18-transcript.pdf

  as of December 3, 2018, ABA applications are up less than 1% compared to last year at this time, and ABA applicants are up 6.2%. That’s a big difference from the numbers I reported a month ago, and unfortunately, not in the preferred direction. This is a good example of how skewed the early volume numbers can be and it reinforces our reluctance to make predictions based on the early numbers.

  https://www.lsac.org/general/podcasts/podcast-dec18-transcript.pdf
• NotMyName Alum Member Sage ⭐

  December 2018 5320 karma

  @akistotle Who is the audience for that podcast? Is it schools or applicants? Because it would seem applications standing at flat, a major decline from last month, is preferable for applicants. No?
• akistotle Member ⭐ 🍌🍌

  December 2018 9377 karma

  @NotMyName said:
  @akistotle Who is the audience for that podcast? Is it schools or applicants? Because it would seem applications standing at flat, a major decline from last month, is preferable for applicants. No?

  Yea, the audience is the schools 😅
• 12 Likes

  LSAT_Wrecker Member ⭐

  December 2018 4850 karma

  https://media1.tenor.com/images/0a6182efc5ec93a6242b570f81394c0e/tenor.gif?itemid=11098164
• 1 Like

  PineapplePizzaSucks Member

  December 2018 534 karma

  So maybe it's actually better to apply in Dec-Jan this cycle. I wonder if schools were more strict with early acceptances/denied more people who applied Sept-Nov. based on the early applicant numbers.
• 5 Likes

  _oshun1_ Alum Member

  December 2018 3652 karma

  @"Michaela.Pratt1" said:
  So maybe it's actually better to apply in Dec-Jan this cycle. I wonder if schools were more strict with early acceptances/denied more people who applied Sept-Nov. based on the early applicant numbers.

  I think schools are just taking their time reviewing apps and not responding as early this cycle...I really don’t think it would ever be beneficial to apply later in the cycle...
• 1 Like

  Ohnoeshalpme Alum Member ⭐

  December 2018 2531 karma

  @"Michaela.Pratt1" said:
  So maybe it's actually better to apply in Dec-Jan this cycle. I wonder if schools were more strict with early acceptances/denied more people who applied Sept-Nov. based on the early applicant numbers.

  It's not that it's better, it just means that you might be able to apply later and still be ok. If apps are truly down from last year, and likely LSAT scores will be down as well, schools will wait until after the new year to make their decisions. They want to see if the students on their waitlist have higher or lower scores than what their expected target scores are. If their wait-listed students are all below target then they will be open to February applicants who exceed their standards. On the other side of the token, if scores are up, students who applied and got accepted early will be lucky!
• 1 Like

  ChaimtheGreat Alum Member 🍌🍌

  December 2018 1277 karma

  I think this cycle will be front-loaded with re-applicants. My guess is that applicants will be up for the first half of the cycle but turn down as we move into January. I think Spivey said this will be a flat cycle and I think I probably agree.
• redshift Alum Member

  December 2018 261 karma

  https://abovethelaw.com/2018/12/law-school-enrollment-is-up-for-the-first-time-in-nearly-a-decade/
• 1 Like

  LSAT_Wrecker Member ⭐

  December 2018 4850 karma

  @redshift said:
  https://abovethelaw.com/2018/12/law-school-enrollment-is-up-for-the-first-time-in-nearly-a-decade/

  While I have seen the Trump-bump hypothesis elsewhere, I would love to see any objective data that backs it up, something beyond, “Hey the numbers are going up and this is what’s in the news recently, so they must be related.” Correlation does not equal causation. For example, how many 7Sagers are applying to law school because of the current president? N=1, Trump has nothing to do with my reasons to apply to law school. Lots of people hated the previous President, and the one previous to him. Did that affect law school admissions as well?
• Overcomer Free Trial Member

  December 2018 96 karma

  @redshift said:
  https://abovethelaw.com/2018/12/law-school-enrollment-is-up-for-the-first-time-in-nearly-a-decade/

  Wow very interesting. Seems like the consensus is all over the place. I guess we'll just have to wait to find out what this cycle will be like. I'm hoping spivey's prediction is correct though.
• 1 Like

  redshift Alum Member

  December 2018 edited December 2018 261 karma

  @LSAT_Wrecker said:

  @redshift said:
  https://abovethelaw.com/2018/12/law-school-enrollment-is-up-for-the-first-time-in-nearly-a-decade/

  While I have seen the Trump-bump hypothesis elsewhere, I would love to see any objective data that backs it up, something beyond, “Hey the numbers are going up and this is what’s in the news recently, so they must be related.” Correlation does not equal causation. For example, how many 7Sagers are applying to law school because of the current president? N=1, Trump has nothing to do with my reasons to apply to law school. Lots of people hated the previous President, and the one previous to him. Did that affect law school admissions as well?

  True. I disagree with the Trump bump explanation, seems like classic post hoc ergo propter hoc. Probably more likely that the enrollment rate dropped as a result of the recession, and is just re-normalizing
• 1 Like

  TrustingGod Free Trial Member

  December 2018 240 karma

  Thanks for all your feedback everyone. I guess we'll just have to wait and see how things turn out this cycle. Let's hope and pray for the best!
• 1 Like

  PineapplePizzaSucks Member

  December 2018 534 karma

  @redshift said:
  https://abovethelaw.com/2018/12/law-school-enrollment-is-up-for-the-first-time-in-nearly-a-decade/

  Confused... I thought last year was a high-applicant, tough cycle?