We debated this question for a long time in Group BR last night. While almost everyone got the correct answer, we were strongly divided about the actual flaw in the stimulus. Some people held the explanation essentially that the argument failed to consider that it was a dichotomy or binary choice. Now, I know JY, Manhattan Forums, and Graeme Blake all state this as the purported flaw of the stimulus, but I find this explanation to be wanting.
Others, including myself, felt that the stimulus was guilty of circular reasoning. To be honest, to explain that an argument fails to consider the possibility of a binary choice seem like a huge assumption. It also seems downright arbitrary. If that were true, wouldn’t that call into question every time we find that an argument is guilty of a false dichotomy? Whereas Circular Reasoning makes sense to me because the conclusion is essentially a restatement of the premises. This explanation requires far less assumptions (especially the difficult-to-swallow “The two options given COULD be the ONLY options”) than those previously mentioned.
I think this is worthy of discussion and I invite mentors, Sages, tutors, and everyone else who wants to to weigh in on it.
@PMLSAT83 @nicole.hopkins @poohbear @c.janson35 @Pacifico [Mod edit]
For reference:
http://7sage.com/lsat_explanations/lsat-69-section-1-question-14/
Comments
To further illustrate this, imagine that Ben Carson and Martin O'Malley win their respective parties nominations and nobody else is running in the general. Just because you independently see no reason for each of them to win does not mean that you can conclude that there is no reason to believe neither of them will win, since in fact it must be one or the other.
Does this help illustrate it a little better? If not let me know and I'll try and come up with something else.
Circular reasoning is a very specific thing that I think looks like A --> B --> A. So an example would be "if you eat cookies then you are fat; you are fat, therefore you eat cookies".
I ---> not PC
I ----> not PL
Conc I ----> not PC or PL
I think the key to this problem is an assumption. The author of the stimulus is making the assumption that there are other ways for a forest fire to start other than campers or lightning. Do we have any reason to believe that there are other possibilities? No. There is no premise to support this, that is why it is an assumption by the author. That is also why this argument is flawed. It is not a deductive argument because it hinges on an assumption.
I also realize that I have been using examples with only two options. However, this flaw could appear in an argument with a lot of possibilities. Here is an example:
I have no proof that film A (nominated) will win the best picture award
I have no proof that film B (nominated) will win the best picture award
I have no proof that film C (nominated) will win the best picture award
I have no proof that film D (nominated) will win the best picture award
I have no proof that film E (nominated) will win the best picture award
Thus, I have no proof that film A or film B or film C or film D or film E will win the best picture award.
This argument requires a huge assumption: that there are other films that were nominated. If there are no other films nominated, we do have proof that one of these five films will win. They were the only ones nominated.
So the flaw of the argument that I see is that it doesn’t specify one way or another how many films were nominated. I think I can wrap my head around that.
It almost feels like a necessary assumption. Maybe that’s why I was having trouble seeing it because I might be assuming that necessary assumptions aren’t flaws per se.
Not bad, Mini-Me!
The classic circular reasoning "The Bible is the word of God because God says so in the Bible" is another illustration of how circular reasoning folds directly back on itself. I'm not 100% sure how it works in conditional logic scenarios but intuitively it feels like it should be as I mentioned in my previous comment.
Begging the question specifically does not mean raising the question as you used it there.
http://languagelog.ldc.upenn.edu/nll/?p=2290
The investigators have not proved that lightning caused the fire. Nor have they proved that campers started the fire. So, the investigators have not proved that the Lightning caused the fire and they have not proved that campers caused the fire.
But, there's a difference in saying "So, the investigators have not proved that campers or lightning have started the fire" because we don't know if they have in fact not proven this. It is possible that they have 100% proved that either campers or lightning started the fire, but without any evidence leaning to a particular cause; nonetheless, by eliminating all other causes, it's possible that they have proved campers or lightning started the fire.
I think the key might be to think of "campers or lightning" as a single entity here. It's possible that the entity has been proven by eliminating other possibilities, but the conclusion on the particular aspects of the entity are still not definitive.
Okay, I'm going to take a stab at this. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong:
I think this question is especially tricky and difficult for me to wrap my head around it because there are so many different characters/ parts involved-- I'm looking at the investigators and what they're doing (not proving things) and then I'm also looking at what the investigators are looking into (the forest fires and it's causes). But the problem is I'm so distracted by all of this when in fact, I really should be taking a step back and thinking about what flaw the AUTHOR is committing here.
The problem here is that the author is ignoring a possible world and then jumping to a conclusion in which that world doesn't even exist. The binary cut just so happens to be the possible world here.
For example: I see that my sister hasn't proven that Arielle took the cookie from the cookie jar. And I see that my sister hasn't proven that Adrienne took the cookie from the cookie jar. Based on this, I'm going to say that my sister hasn't been able to prove that the cookie was taken by either one of the kids.
^Can I really conclude this? My argument would be flawed since I'm assuming that just because my sister hasn't been able prove which kid did it, that she isn't able to say the cookie was taken by either one of them. My sister might not know if Arielle did it or Adrienne did it. But can we say that she doesn't know if the cookie was taken by either kid? Not necessarily. I'm completely ignoring the world/possibility that my sister knew it could've only been either Adrienne or Arielle taking the cookie and no one else.
The flaw here is based on MY incorrect assumption. Remember to take a step back and think about what the author's argument is and the flaw involved. Don't get too wrapped up in everything else. See past the craziness!
@DumbHollywoodActor It clarified a lot for me when put it in a situation that I could easily relate to. The cookie situation involving my nieces and my sister is definitely something that could happen everyday at home. Try reworking the question into something that might make it easier for you to understand-- maybe the cookie situation with your wife and kids? Good luck!
I love that this problem has engendered all of this discussion. So, you moved around a lot of words, but essentially, the meaning of your example is identical to the stimulus with one exception: “and" instead of “or”. I thought the or essentially means “and” on the LSAT unless it has the “but not both”. From Pacifico’s link I see that the difference between a “begging the question” and the stimulus is that the stimulus’s premises aren’t assuming the conclusion is true. They’re restating the conclusion, but separating out it’s parts. Evidently, that is not circular reasoning.
I think I see what everyone means now, though. Let me see if I can explain it. I tried to treat this as a necessary assumption question and something clicked for me. A correct answer could be “The forest fire was started by something other than campers or lightning.” Once I understood that that would clearly be a correct answer, it all clicked. It also showed that my understanding of flaws has been limited. I think I blocked in my mind that necessary assumptions are flaws. I’m almost embarrassed to admit it, but it’s true. Essentially, unless it’s a purely deductive argument (All Jedis use the Force, Luke is a Jedi, Therefore, Luke uses the Force), almost every argument is riddled with splinter-like flaws. It seems so obvious now that I’m stating it, but it was clearly something I was blocking before.
Thanks, everyone!