Statistical Reasoning

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  Cant Get Right Yearly + Live Member Sage ⭐ 🍌 7Sage Tutor

  April 2016 edited April 2016 27900 karma

  In this one, David just totally misses the point. Marianna says that drunk driving increases the probability of a wreck involving serious or fatal injuries, and the David’s all like, well actually Marianna, drunk drivers are slightly less likely to be hurt badly in wrecks than sober drivers. What are you even talking about David?? She’s talking about the likelihood of the wreck happening to begin with and you come in here with that!? So first of all, however much safer being drunk makes you in a wreck, David, causing the wreck to begin with because you were drunk invariably increases your risk of death or serious injury via car wreck. Secondly, you trying to say that only drunk drivers are involved in the wrecks they cause? What about the perfectly sober guy in the passenger seat? I don’t know why he’s not driving, you tell me David. And what about other cars? Wrecks can’t involve multiple drivers? How does your argument have anything to do with what Marianna is talking about? Get out of here David, I’m done with you. Go on.
  
  Anyway, now that David’s gone, the issue here didn’t really involve probability beyond a superficial level. It wasn’t essential to understanding what was going on, but it can act as a bit of a red herring as you try and figure out what’s going on with it. Marianna could just as easily have said, “People still drive drunk and cause serious accidents.” And David could have responded with, “Well, uh um, actually Marianna, uh, if you’re drunk then you’re actually safer when you’re in a wreck.” They’re saying the exact same things, just with the concept of probability removed. I think the vast majority of other questions involving probability will break down in a similar way (unless it’s a logical possibility like “most” or “some”).