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In case anyone was curious... (LSAT Toughness History)

lm125108lm125108 Member
edited December 2016 in General 134 karma
I took the curve data from PowerScore from the past few years (https://www.powerscore.com/lsat/help/correct_targeted.cfm) and used it to "predict" how tough each of the June, Sept/Oct, and Dec LSATs* are. The more questions you can miss to get a 170 the tougher the exam. Here were the results (in order of toughness) with the average, median, and mode number of misses for a 170:

1. December (A: -12, Me.: -12 , Mo.: -14)
2. September/October (-11, -11.5, -12)
3. June (-10.5, -10, -10)

If you want to see the spreadsheet take a look here (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R50NrcEHESugADTvR1Xz4MmyMlJpp9oU3GtYP7vRq5Y/edit?usp=sharing). Scroll to the bottom or see sheet 2 for summary chart.

Good luck to my fellow December takers! And for anyone who hasn't signed up yet, maybe take the June exam. :)

*PowerScore doesn't have February data.
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Comments

  • SkywalkerSkywalker Alum Member
    214 karma
    Brava!!!
  • Vickpetrosian1Vickpetrosian1 Free Trial Member
    139 karma
    Here some food for thought... most competitive students aim for sep or oct ...December has a more misses allowed because I believe a larger proportion of students who are not as competitive i.e. prepared take it ... honestly September is the last draw for most early admission applicants keep that in mind.
  • AlexAlex Alum Member ⭐
    edited December 2016 23929 karma
    @Vickpetrosian1 said:
    Here some food for thought... most competitive students aim for sep or oct ...December has a more misses allowed because I believe a larger proportion of students who are not as competitive i.e. prepared take it ... honestly September is the last draw for most early admission applicants keep that in mind.
    Interesting idea, however, the LSAT is not curved the way many believe it is. When the competitive students sit for the exam has little to do with the amount of misses one is allowed to achieve a 170. This is determined from data that comes from experimental sections from early tests.

  • AlexAlex Alum Member ⭐
    23929 karma
    @lm125108 said:
    Good luck to my fellow December takers! And for anyone who hasn't signed up yet, maybe take the June exam. :)
    This is awesome, OP! Thanks :)
  • lm125108lm125108 Member
    134 karma
    @Vickpetrosian1 I thought about that, too, but didn't have any ideas to account for that. Can't hurt to be in the mindset to be overly prepared for a "harder" december lsat though :)

  • Vickpetrosian1Vickpetrosian1 Free Trial Member
    139 karma
    @"Alex Divine" really? so the curve is configured based on previous data???? That is ridiculous ...very illogical why wouldn't they apply the curve from current results ... its not as representative to have old results from "OLDER" tests ... so lucrative these peeps are up to something
  • esteeroseesteerose Alum Member
    382 karma
    it's a little late to over prepare!
  • lianaf92lianaf92 Member
    99 karma
    does the Dec -12 mean that it is generally an easier or harder exam than June and September?
  • MrSamIamMrSamIam Inactive ⭐
    edited December 2016 2086 karma
    @lianaf92 If you're operating under the assumption that more questions missed for 170 = more difficult test (which, I believe most are), than the Dec test would be more difficult than the June test.

    P.S. Thanks, OP for crunching the numbers together. For those taking the Dec test, please don't let this freak you out. The LSAC are sticklers for standardizing almost everything. There's a reason why a curve exists.
  • Creasey LSATCreasey LSAT Member
    edited December 2016 423 karma
    Not that I care that this test might be more difficult on average (in fact, I would probably welcome such a thing), I now promise to drop a similar "bomb" on you the weekend before YOUR LSAT. Way to help calm the nerves of Dec LSAT takers, @lm125108. Congratulations, you know how to calculate means, medians and modes. Don't care.
  • AlexAlex Alum Member ⭐
    edited December 2016 23929 karma
    @Vickpetrosian1 said:
    @"Alex Divine" really? so the curve is configured based on previous data???? That is ridiculous ...very illogical why wouldn't they apply the curve from current results ... its not as representative to have old results from "OLDER" tests ... so lucrative these peeps are up to something
    I think you're misunderstanding what I am saying. The LSAT is in no way based on a curve. However, somewhere along the line statistically illiterate people began spreading this meme, probably because test "curve" is common terminology. So it makes sense and is easier to understand, but not accurate.

    The LSAC uses a statistical process called "test equating" to account for the differences in difficulty between test administrations. How they reliably discern the difficulty is from studying the data from experimental sections from past administrations. In other words, every question that will be on the December 2016 exam will have already appeared on previous tests' experimental sections.



  • blah blahblah blah Alum Member
    111 karma
    I've found in my prep that the -12 to -14 tests generally had RC sections that many people found to be especially challenging. I wonder if there's any way to find out whether such tests generally had RC sections where they expected more incorrect answers (more passages and questions that are rated rather difficult), or whether the expected increase in misses were distributed fairly evenly across the three types of sections.
  • Creasey LSATCreasey LSAT Member
    423 karma
    Oh, great. Now we're arousing unfounded fears specifically targeting December RC. Way to go, @"gettier this barn"
  • AlexAlex Alum Member ⭐
    23929 karma
    @"Creasey LSAT" said:
    Oh, great. Now we're arousing unfounded fears specifically targeting December RC. Way to go, @"gettier this barn"
    Chill out! I think your nerves have gotten the best of you, my friend. Get some rest and relaxation and stay away from the forums for a bit. I think at this point, everything is prone to stressing you out.
  • blah blahblah blah Alum Member
    111 karma
    @"Creasy LSAT" lmao yeah no one should get worried, nor should anyone get their hopes up. My comments are based on selective memory, most likely.
  • Creasey LSATCreasey LSAT Member
    423 karma
    Chill out! I think your nerves have gotten the best of you, my friend. Get some rest and relaxation and stay away from the forums for a bit. I think at this point, everything is prone to stressing you out.
    Perception vs. reality flaw.
  • icecreamparfaiticecreamparfait Free Trial Member
    82 karma
    I don't understand...so Dec. test is harder? But they have this curve, so it won't matter, right?
  • AlexAlex Alum Member ⭐
    edited December 2016 23929 karma
    @mw393730 said:
    I don't understand...so Dec. test is harder? But they have this curve, so it won't matter, right?
    The LSAT is not a curved exam. The LSAC uses a method called "test equating" where they adjust the amount one can get wrong and still receive a 170. No one month's test is "harder" or "easier," that would defeat the purpose of a standardized exam.

    In other words, don't sweat the test Monday. It will likely be as hard/easy as you're used to. Or as you said, "It won't matter."

    Good luck!
  • AlexAlex Alum Member ⭐
    edited December 2016 23929 karma
    @"Creasey LSAT" said:
    Perception vs. reality flaw.
    El. oh. el. :) You're gunna nail this test!

  • DumbHollywoodActorDumbHollywoodActor Alum Inactive ⭐
    7468 karma
  • inactiveinactive Alum Member
    12637 karma
    @"Creasey LSAT" said:
    Oh, great. Now we're arousing unfounded fears specifically targeting December RC. Way to go, @"gettier this barn"
    I think you need to take a break. Chill a bit, please. You're stressing me out more than the LSAT is (and it's on my birthday).
This discussion has been closed.