I vote for How to Write a Personal Statement: Story Basics. I think including general examples on what to do/avoid along with specific writing samples/essays would further strengthen the lesson. Thank you.
Your shots are not insignificant. I would probably say just under a 50/50. It depends on your major, your school, and whether you tell a compelling story in all of your essays, especially that Y250.
With your stats and URM status, I think it would be a mistake to ED. I wouldn't rule out HYS or others in the T14 with $$$. Just make sure you have superb essays and LOR.
... , UCLA, that require add'l essays. You may may able to ... especially when considering additional scholarship essays. So depending on how far ... 've been working on my essays, everything just feels more right ...