LSAT 154 – Section 1 – Question 22

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Curve Question
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PT154 S1 Q22
+LR
+Exp
Weaken +Weak
Causal Reasoning +CausR
Link Assumption +LinkA
A
5%
157
B
17%
160
C
7%
163
D
13%
161
E
59%
164
139
157
175
+Harder 147.621 +SubsectionMedium

Newspaper: Increases in produce prices apparently have led to an increase in the planting of personal gardens. The two largest retail seed companies each reported sales increases of around 19 percent in the last year alone, a year in which the price of produce spiked.

Summarize Argument: Phenomenon-Hypothesis
The newspaper’s conclusion is a hypothesis about the effect of increased produce prices: they’ve resulted in an increase in gardening. To support this hypothesis, the newspaper points to a correlation: during the same year that produce prices rose, sales for two major seed companies also rose.

Notable Assumptions
Based on a mere correlation between produce prices and seed sales, the author concludes that produce prices are responsible for the increase in gardening. So, she assumes there’s not some other explanation for the increased sales. She also assumes that the relationship isn’t reversed—that is, increased seed sales aren’t somehow responsible for rising produce costs. Finally, she assumes a link between seed sales and gardening—namely, that increased sales at just the two largest seed companies is a reliable sign that people are actually gardening more.

A
Increases in produce prices are largely driven by increases in the fuel costs of bringing crops to market.
The cause of increased produce prices provides no info on whether those increased prices have, or have not, had an effect on gardening.
B
The average personal garden is much smaller than it was decades ago when inexpensive produce started to become available.
This suggests that perhaps gardening has declined compared to decades ago, but the argument is focused on whether, and why, gardening activity has changed since only last year.
C
Community gardens report that waiting lists for renting garden plots have gotten longer over the last year.
This suggests that interest in gardening has increased, but offers no insight into whether the actual planting of such gardens has increased or whether produce prices are, or are not, the underlying cause.
D
Personal gardens are usually popular in economic downturns.
Without knowing whether there has been an economic downturn, we can’t assess the effect (D) has on the argument Also, even if there has been a downturn, (D) still allows for increased produce prices to be the cause of the rising popularity of gardens.
E
A large retail seed company went out of business early last year.
This provides an alternative hypothesis for the increased seed sales at the two largest seed companies: one of their competitors went out of business. This undermines the author’s assumption that the increased seed sales were due to rising produce prices.

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