Film director: It’s inaccurate to say that filmgoers stayed away from my film because it received one or two negative reviews. My film had such a small audience during its opening weekend simply because it was competing with several other films that appeal to the same type of filmgoer that mine does, and the number of such viewers is relatively small.

Summarize Argument: Phenomenon-Hypothesis
The director hypothesizes that negative reviews were not the reason that filmgoers stayed away from the director’s film. The director instead offers an alternative explanation for the film’s small opening weekend audience, based on observations about potential viewers: the small audience was because of a small initial pool of interested filmgoers being split among the director’s film and other, similar films that weekend.

Notable Assumptions
The director assumes that negative reviews couldn’t also have contributed to the low turnout. The director also assumes that if a filmgoer sees a competing film in the same weekend, that filmgoer will be less likely to see the director’s film.

A
The film director’s film received no positive reviews.
This doesn’t strengthen the director’s hypothesis, as the argument is that the low audience turnout on the film’s opening weekend was only caused by competition from other films, and not by reviews. If anything, this might weaken by making the bad reviews more impactful.
B
Filmgoers seldom see more than one film in a weekend.
This strengthens by affirming the assumption that filmgoers who saw a competing film would be less likely to see the director’s film. This makes it more reasonable to claim that competing films are the true explanation for the lower audience.
C
The total number of filmgoers was larger than average on the weekend the film director’s film opened.
Even with a high total number of filmgoers on the opening weekend, the pool of viewers for films like the director’s could still be small, so this doesn’t clearly affect the argument.
D
Each of the other films that the film director alludes to received one or two positive reviews.
Without knowing anything about the audience turnout for those other films relative to the director’s film, this doesn’t help us determine whether reviews are likely to have affected the turnout for the director’s film.
E
Most filmgoers are drawn to a variety of kinds of film.
This is irrelevant, because we already know that only a small number of people like the kind of film made by the director, regardless of how they feel about other types of films.

3 comments

Researchers have found that the percentage of people who start new businesses is much higher in countries with high per capita income than in countries with moderate per capita income. This is to be expected since most entrepreneurs in high- and middle-income countries start businesses to take advantage of perceived business opportunities, and there are more such opportunities in high-income countries. Surprisingly, however, the researchers also found that the percentage of people who start businesses is even higher in low-income countries than in high-income ones.

"Surprising" Phenomenon

Why is the percentage of people starting businesses higher in low-income countries than in high-income ones, even though there are more perceived business opportunities in high-income countries, where entrepreneurs often start businesses to take advantage of these opportunities?

Objective

The correct answer will be a hypothesis explaining the difference in motivations for starting a business in high- versus low-income countries. While entrepreneurs in high-income countries often start businesses take advantage of abundant perceived business opportunities, entrepreneurs in low-income countries must have a different motivation.

A
In both high- and low-income countries, well over half of new businesses expect to provide jobs for no more than one or two people.

This does not provide a difference between the reasons for starting a business in high-income countries versus in low-income countries. Instead, it gives us a similarity in the expected job creation of new business in both high- and low-income countries.

B
Many governments of high-income countries provide assistance to individuals who want to start businesses, but very few governments of low-income countries do so.

This adds confusion by suggesting why people in low-income countries would be less likely to start a business, instead of explaining why they are actually more likely to do so than those in high-income countries.

C
The percentage of new businesses that fail within a few years of being founded is generally no higher in low-income countries than in high-income countries.

We need a difference in the reasons for starting a business in low-income versus high-income countries. Instead, (C) gives us a similarity in the failure rates of business in low- and high-income countries.

D
In high-income countries, many entrepreneurs who start businesses to take advantage of perceived business opportunities soon discover that the opportunities were illusory.

Whether the perceived business opportunities in high-income countries are illusory does not explain why the percentage of people starting businesses is higher in low-income countries. We need an alternate reason for starting a business in low-income countries.

E
In low-income countries, most entrepreneurs start businesses because all other employment options are either absent or unsatisfactory.

This explains why more people start businesses in low-income countries than in high-income ones: in low-income countries, entrepreneurs often start businesses due to limited job options, rather than because of abundant business opportunities.


2 comments

Albert: Swenson’s popular book, which argues that sun exposure does not harm skin cells, is a model of poor scholarship. Nonetheless, it is valuable because it has stimulated new research on sun exposure.

Yvonne: You’re kidding me! You might as well say that a virus is valuable because it stimulates epidemiologists.

Speaker 1 Summary
Albert claims that Swenson’s book is valuable, despite its major scientific flaws. Why could that be? Because the problems with the book have led to new, useful research about sun exposure.

Speaker 2 Summary
Yvonne thinks that that stimulating new research is not enough to make Swenson’s book valuable (although this conclusion is implied, not explicit). To support this point, Yvonne uses an analogy: it would be ridiculous to say that a virus is valuable because it leads to new epidemiology research. Swenson’s book is held to be analogous to the virus, so stimulating research alone doesn’t make it valuable.

Objective
We need to find a point of disagreement. Albert and Yvonne disagree about whether stimulating new research makes Swenson’s book valuable.

A
sun exposure harms skin cells
Both speakers almost certainly agree with this claim. Albert calls Swenson’s claim that sun exposure doesn’t harm skin cells “a model of poor scholarship,” and Yvonne seems even more critical of Swenson than Albert does.
B
Swenson’s book is a model of poor scholarship
Albert agrees with this, and Yvonne almost certainly does as well. Yvonne compares Swenson’s book to a virus and argues against recognizing any value in it, which is very consistent with this statement.
C
Swenson’s book should be considered valuable
Albert agrees with this, and Yvonne disagrees. This is the point at issue. Albert’s conclusion is that the book has some value, if only due to stimulating other research. Yvonne argues that stimulating research doesn’t make the book valuable, leaving it with no value at all.
D
Swenson’s book has stimulated new research on sun exposure
Albert agrees with this, and Yvonne likely does as well. Albert states this as a fact, and Yvonne appears to take it for granted. The disagreement is just about whether stimulating new research makes the book valuable.
E
something that does not stimulate new research can have value
Neither speaker talks about this. The argument is about whether or not a book that has stimulated new research is valuable; the issue of what else is valuable and why is never brought up.

1 comment

Among small- to medium-sized marine mammals such as seals and dolphins, the longer an animal can stay submerged during a dive, the greater the depth the animal can reach. Dolphins can dive to greater depths than northern fur seals can, and elephant seals can stay submerged longer than Weddell seals can.

Summary
Among small-to-medium-sized marine mammals, the longer an animal can stay submerged during a dive, the greater the depth the animal can reach. Dolphins can dive to greater depths than northern fur seals can. Elephant seals can stay submerged longer than Weddell seals can.

Notable Valid Inferences
For MBT-Except questions, the wrong answers are all Could Be True. The one right answer Must Be False.
Dolphins can dive to greater depths than Weddell seals, but not as deep as Elephant seals can.
Northern fur seals can dive to greater depths than Weddell seals, but not as deep as Elephant seals can.

A
Dolphins can dive to greater depths than Weddell seals can, but not to depths as great as elephant seals can.
Could be true. It is possible for dolphins to dive to a depth greater than Weddell seals but not as deep as elephant seals.
B
Weddell seals can stay submerged longer than northern fur seals can, but dolphins can dive to greater depths than Weddell seals can.
Could be true. It is possible for Weddell seals to dive to a depth greater than northern fur seals but not as deep as dolphins.
C
Weddell seals can dive to greater depths than dolphins can and can stay submerged longer than northern fur seals can.
Must be true. The stimulus tells us that dolphins can dive to greater depths than northern fur seals. If Weddell seals dive deeper than dolphins, then they must also dive deeper than northern fur seals.
D
Northern fur seals can stay submerged longer than elephant seals can, but Weddell seals can dive to greater depths than dolphins can.
Must be false. It is impossible for Weddell seals to dive deeper than dolphins if northern fur seals dive deeper than elephant seals.
E
Northern fur seals can stay submerged longer than Weddell seals can, but elephant seals can dive to greater depths than northern fur seals can.
Could be true. It is possible for northern fur seals to dive to a depth greater than Weddell seals but not as deep as elephant seals.

29 comments

The stimulus tells us that tariffs help a small group of people (let's say 10 people) but hurts a large group of people (let's say 100 people). You take a poll of all the people (110) and no surprise, most are opposed to the tariffs (say all 100 are opposed).

Great. That's it. 10 people are for the tariffs. 100 are against.

Now imagine you're the politician and you know these facts. What platform are you going to run? An anti-tariff platform? Maybe. It's not entirely unreasonable. But you should identify the assumption you'd be making if you were to run anti-tariff. Namely, that the tariff issue is important to those 100 people.

Obviously, you want to harness votes and avoid driving votes away. If you assume the world is such that tariffs matter equally to everyone, then an anti-tariff platform would harness 100 votes and drive away 10 votes. You come out +90 votes, good.

Negating (A) severely challenges the assumption. It opens up the possibility that the actual world is one in which the pro-tariff 10 people care way more about the tariff than the anti-tariff 100 people. If that were the case, then an anti-tariff platform would for sure lose you 10 votes without a guarantee of adding any additional votes.

We know this intuitively in the real world. People care about many many things. But not all of those things translate into political action through voting. In other words, the set of things that people vote on is a small sub-set of the things that people care about.

The phenomenon that (A) hints at is actually very well documented in economics and politics. The issue is one of concentrated benefits versus diffuse costs. Think of it like this. There's a set of laws that allow you to take a penny from everyone in the country each year. You're net positive roughly $3 million each year. Everyone is hurt one penny each year. Who cares about that law more? Of course you do. You care intensely that that law remain in place and you will take political action to ensure that it does. This would at minimum include voting on that basis but more likely even include lobbying. Me? I sort of care a little maybe that that law gets repealed. Certainly I don't care from a selfish economics perspective, after all I only stand to gain 1 penny. I have to find motivation to care from a justice or fairness principle and that's harder to muster. I very likely will not take any political action on this issue.

In most states, lobbyists ensure that legislation force the retail distribution of cars through dealerships, even if direct distribution from the manufacturer to the consumer is more economically efficient. But the benefits of this regime are concentrated to the dealerships (it's their entire livelihoods!) while the costs are diffused to everyone else (everyone pays a little more for their cars and manufacturers earn a little less). The vocal minority with a lot to gain will organize politically while the indifferent majority with little to lose individually will not. The end result is a net loss for society.

The presence of concentrated benefits versus diffuse costs is a bug in our political system, not a feature.


1 comment