The stimulus tells us that tariffs help a small group of people (let's say 10 people) but hurts a large group of people (let's say 100 people). You take a poll of all the people (110) and no surprise, most are opposed to the tariffs (say all 100 are opposed).

Great. That's it. 10 people are for the tariffs. 100 are against.

Now imagine you're the politician and you know these facts. What platform are you going to run? An anti-tariff platform? Maybe. It's not entirely unreasonable. But you should identify the assumption you'd be making if you were to run anti-tariff. Namely, that the tariff issue is important to those 100 people.

Obviously, you want to harness votes and avoid driving votes away. If you assume the world is such that tariffs matter equally to everyone, then an anti-tariff platform would harness 100 votes and drive away 10 votes. You come out +90 votes, good.

Negating (A) severely challenges the assumption. It opens up the possibility that the actual world is one in which the pro-tariff 10 people care way more about the tariff than the anti-tariff 100 people. If that were the case, then an anti-tariff platform would for sure lose you 10 votes without a guarantee of adding any additional votes.

We know this intuitively in the real world. People care about many many things. But not all of those things translate into political action through voting. In other words, the set of things that people vote on is a small sub-set of the things that people care about.

The phenomenon that (A) hints at is actually very well documented in economics and politics. The issue is one of concentrated benefits versus diffuse costs. Think of it like this. There's a set of laws that allow you to take a penny from everyone in the country each year. You're net positive roughly $3 million each year. Everyone is hurt one penny each year. Who cares about that law more? Of course you do. You care intensely that that law remain in place and you will take political action to ensure that it does. This would at minimum include voting on that basis but more likely even include lobbying. Me? I sort of care a little maybe that that law gets repealed. Certainly I don't care from a selfish economics perspective, after all I only stand to gain 1 penny. I have to find motivation to care from a justice or fairness principle and that's harder to muster. I very likely will not take any political action on this issue.

In most states, lobbyists ensure that legislation force the retail distribution of cars through dealerships, even if direct distribution from the manufacturer to the consumer is more economically efficient. But the benefits of this regime are concentrated to the dealerships (it's their entire livelihoods!) while the costs are diffused to everyone else (everyone pays a little more for their cars and manufacturers earn a little less). The vocal minority with a lot to gain will organize politically while the indifferent majority with little to lose individually will not. The end result is a net loss for society.

The presence of concentrated benefits versus diffuse costs is a bug in our political system, not a feature.


46 comments

Most of the mines that Moradco operates in the province of Velyena have never violated environmental regulations. Every one of the gold mines that Moradco operates throughout the world has at some time or another violated environmental regulations.

Summary
Most mines that Moradco operates in the province of Velyena have never violated environmental regulations. Every gold mine Moradco operates has at some time violated environmental regulations.

Notable Valid Inferences
Most of the mines Moradco operates in Velyena are not gold mines.

A
Moradco operates more mines in Velyena than any other company operates there.
Could be false. We don’t have any information in the stimulus about the total number of mines to make this comparison. Our conditions are restricted to the proportion of mines that have or have not violated environmental regulations.
B
The total number of gold mines that Moradco operates is larger than the total number of mines it operates in Velyena.
Could be false. We don’t have any information in the stimulus about the total number of mines to make this comparison. Our conditions are restricted to the proportion of mines that have or have not violated environmental regulations.
C
Most of the gold mines that Moradco operates are not located in Velyena.
Could be false. We don’t have any information in the stimulus about the total number of mines Moradco operates to make this statement. We cannot assume that just because most mines in Velyena have not violated environmental regulations that most mines are not located there.
D
Most of the mines that Moradco operates in Velyena are not gold mines.
Must be true. As shown below, we can take the contrapositive of the last statement in the stimulus which tells us that if a mine has never violated environmental regulations, then that mine is not a gold mine.
E
Most of the mines that Moradco operates throughout the world are not gold mines.
Could be false. We don’t have any information in the stimulus about the number of mines Moradco operates outside of the province of Velyena. It is possible that most of Moradco’s mines are in Velyena.

9 comments

Critic: It is common to argue that there is a distinction between “literary” and “genre” fiction. The first should be interpreted, so this argument goes, while the second is merely a source of easy pleasure. But this is a specious distinction—not because every work should be interpreted, but because no work should be. When we evaluate a work principally for its themes and ideas, we cut ourselves off from the work’s emotional impact.

Summarize Argument: Counter-Position
Other people make a distinction between “literary” and “genre” fiction. To those people, “literary” fiction should be interpreted, while “genre” fiction is just for pleasure. The author concludes that this distinction doesn’t make sense, since no works should be interpreted.

Identify Argument Part
The referenced text is a premise offered to support the subsidiary conclusion that no work should be interpreted. The claim that no work should be interpreted in turn supports the conclusion that the distinction between “literary” and “genre” fiction doesn’t make sense.

A
It states the conclusion.
The referenced text is not the main conclusion. It’s offered to support the claim that no work should be interpreted, which in turn supports the main conclusion.
B
It is offered as support for the conclusion.
This is an accurate description of the referenced text. It supports the subsidiary conclusion, which in turn supports the main conclusion.
C
It attempts to spell out the practical implications of the critic’s conclusion.
The referenced text does not describe the implications of the critic’s conclusion. It describes the impact of interpreting a work.
D
It attempts to explain the nature of the distinction that the critic considers.
The referenced text does note explain the distinction. It is a reason that the author believes the distinction should not be drawn.
E
It attempts to anticipate an objection to the critic’s conclusion.
The referenced text supports the conclusion. It’s not a potential objection to the conclusion.

11 comments