"Surprising" Phenomenon
Why did Muratori win the election if Muratori was significantly behind Kenner in polling conducted in the homes of eligible voters just before the election?
Objective
The right answer will be a hypothesis that addresses something that wasn’t captured by the polling conducted in the homes of eligible voters just before the election. The thing that wasn’t captured could be something that changed after the poll or that the poll didn’t cover.
A
The positions taken by Muratori and Kenner on many election issues were not very similar to each other.
The positions taken by Muratori and Kenner are irrelevant. We know Kenner was significantly ahead of Muratori in polling conducted in the homes of eligible voters right before the election, so we need an answer that addresses why the election results didn’t follow this polling.
B
Kenner had held elected office for many years before the recent election.
Kenner holding elected office in the years before the election tells us nothing about why the polling conducted immediately before the election wasn’t representative of the election results.
C
In the year leading up to the election, Kenner was implicated in a series of political scandals.
Even with Kenner being implicated in scandals in the year leading up to the election, Kenner was ahead in polling immediately before the election. We need to know why that polling didn’t reflect the election outcome.
D
Six months before the recent election, the voting age was lowered by three years.
The polling mentioned in the stimulus occurred immediately before the election and covered eligible voters, so voters made eligible six months before the election would’ve been considered by the polling. The polling accounts for (D).
E
In the poll, supporters of Muratori were more likely than others to describe the election as important.
If (E) is true, Kenner’s supporters were less likely to consider the election important and thus probably less likely to vote. The poll in the stimulus showing Kenner had more supporters than Muratori doesn’t capture this, which could lead to the poll being inaccurate.
Summarize Argument
The author concludes that it’s unlikely an education party is viable in the long run. This is based on the following:
Historically, in order to be viable in the long run, a party needs at least 30% of eligible voters prepared to support it by joining it or by donating money to it.
According to a recent poll, only 26% of eligible voters are prepared to join an education party, and only 16% of eligible voters are prepared to donate money to one.
Identify and Describe Flaw
The author overlooks the possibility that the combination of people who are prepared to join and people who are prepared to donate would exceed 30%. In other words, the author takes for granted that the set of people who are prepared to donate is completely contained within the set who are prepared to join. But this doesn’t have to be true. Some people might want to donate without wanting to join.
A
some of those who said they were willing to donate money to an education party might not actually do so if such a party were formed
If even fewer people donate than expected, that doesn’t undermine the argument. If anything, that suggests the level of support for an education party is even lower.
B
an education party could possibly be viable with a smaller base than is customarily needed
The author noted that an education party is “unlikely” to be viable. This recognizes that it’s possible some education parties might be able to gain viability even if they don’t meet the requirements observed based on the historical evidence.
C
the 16 percent of eligible voters prepared to donate money to an education party might donate almost as much money as a party would ordinarily expect to get if 30 percent of eligible voters contributed
The overall amount of money donated is irrelevant to the author’s reasoning, because the historical evidence relied on is about % of voters who are prepared to join or donate. The historical requirement for viability isn’t about the amount of money that a party needs.
D
a party needs the appropriate support of at least 30 percent of eligible voters in order to be viable and more than half of all eligible voters support the idea of an education party
The author considers this. The author acknowledges that over 50% support the idea of an education party, but states that historically there are specific kinds of support required (join/donate). That’s why the author thinks the “over 50% support” isn’t enough for viability.
E
some of the eligible voters who would donate money to an education party might not be prepared to join such a party
If some of the voters who would donate are not those who would join, that shows it’s possible the combination of voters who would join plus the voters who would donate could exceed 30%. This is why the premises don’t show that an education party is likely to fail.
Reza: Language requires the use of verbal signs for objects as well as for feelings. Many animals can vocally express hunger, but only humans can ask for an egg or an apple by naming it. And using verbal signs for objects requires the ability to distinguish these objects from other objects, which in turn requires conceptual thought.
Summary
The stimulus can be diagrammed as follows:
Notable Valid Inferences
Conceptual thought is a necessary condition for language use.
Animals do not have language.
A
Conceptual thought is required for language.
This must be true. As shown in the diagram, by chaining the conditional claims, we see that conceptual thought is a necessary condition for language.
B
Conceptual thought requires the use of verbal signs for objects.
This could be false. (B) says “Conceptual thought → Use of verbal signs for objects.” In our diagram, we only have conceptual thought as a necessary condition; we don’t know what conceptual thought is a sufficient condition for.
C
It is not possible to think conceptually about feelings.
This could be false. We have no information about which topics are possible to think about conceptually.
D
All humans are capable of conceptual thought.
This could be false. In our diagram, “human” is a necessary condition for “use of verbal signs for objects.” We are not given “humans” as a sufficient condition for anything, so we don’t know anything that “all humans” can do.
E
The vocal expressions of animals other than humans do not require conceptual thought.
This could be false. We know that many animals can vocally express at least one feeling (hunger). It could be the case that vocal expression of hunger requires conceptual thought; our stimulus just doesn’t address this.
Summarize Argument: Counter-Position
The author concludes that the results of a recent election poll are questionable. The support for this comes from the idea that the poll was conducted in high-priced shopping malls. Because Perkins’s policies support the upper-middle class, it is likely that her supporters are overrepresented at the expensive malls. This means that the sample for the poll was biased, so the results of the poll are probably not representative of the views of eligible voters in general.
Identify Conclusion
The conclusion is that the results of the election poll may not be accurate: “the results of that poll are dubious.”
A
The poll was intentionally designed to favor Perkins over Samuels.
There is no indication in the argument that the problematic design of the poll was intentional, so this is not the conclusion.
B
Samuels’s supporters believe that they were probably not adequately represented in the poll.
There is no discussion of what the supporters of Samuels believe, so this is not the main conclusion.
C
The poll’s results probably do not accurately represent the opinions of the voters in the coming election.
This is the main conclusion. This is a paraphrase of the part of the argument that was identified as the conclusion. Further, the rest of the argument acts as support for this claim.
D
Samuels is quite likely to have a good chance of winning the coming election.
The argument does not give any indication of the accurate polling numbers; we just know that the poll discussed in the argument might not be accurate. This is unsupported from the argument, so it is not the main conclusion.
E
Those who designed the poll should have considered more carefully where to conduct the survey.
This kind of value judgement (what poll designers “should have considered”) is not included in the argument, so this is not the main conclusion.
Summarize Argument: Phenomenon-Hypothesis
The author hypothesizes that REM sleep relieves stress. This is based on the phenomenon that people who don’t get REM sleep become grumpy.
Notable Assumptions
The author assumes causation from correlation. In other words, the author assumes that a lack of REM sleep makes REM sleep-deprived individuals cranky, and there isn’t some other factor that causes the crankiness.
A
Test subjects who are chronically deprived of non-REM sleep also become irritable during waking life.
This weakens the argument. It attacks the author’s assumption that a lack of REM sleep makes REM sleep-deprived individuals cranky, as people deprived of non-REM sleep also become cranky. This weakens the causal relationship between a lack of REM sleep and crankiness.
B
Chronically having bad dreams can cause stress, but so can chronically having pleasant but exciting dreams.
This does not affect the argument. The nature of the dreams one has in REM sleep does not affect the phenomenon the author seeks to explain, which is that a lack of REM sleep makes people more irritable.
C
During times of increased stress, one’s REM sleep is disturbed in a way that prevents one from dreaming.
This does not affect the argument. While we know that dreams only occur during REM sleep, we don't know how, or whether, a lack of dreams impacts the stress relief process the author claims occurs during REM sleep.
D
Only some people awakened during REM sleep can report the dreams they were having just before being awakened.
This does not affect the argument. We don't know how, or whether, remembering the dreams that occur during REM sleep affects the stress relief process the author claims occurs during REM sleep.
E
Other factors being equal, people who normally have shorter periods of REM sleep tend to experience more stress.
This strengthens the argument. It offers more evidence to support the causal relationship the author assumes exists. In other words, it supports the author’s assumption that a lack of REM sleep (as opposed to some other factor) makes REM sleep-deprived individuals cranky.
Summary
Since 1989, importing ivory from African elephants into the US and Canada has been illegal. But, importing ivory from ancient mammoths is legal. Following the 1989 ban on importing elephant ivory, there was a sharp uptick in ivory imports labeled as mammoth ivory. However, once a technique was developed to reliably distinguish between elephant and mammoth ivory, there was a dramatic decline in the amount of imported ivory labeled as mammoth ivory.
Strongly Supported Conclusions
Before the technique to distinguish between the two types of ivory was introduced, much of the ivory labeled mammoth ivory was actually elephant ivory.
A
Customs officials still cannot reliably distinguish elephant ivory from mammoth ivory.
This is antisupported. The stimulus says that a technique was discovered and widely known.
B
Most of the ivory currently imported into the U.S. and Canada comes from neither African elephants nor mammoths.
The stimulus does not provide information about the current sources of most ivory imports.
C
In the period since the technique for distinguishing elephant ivory from mammoth ivory was implemented, the population of African elephants has declined.
The stimulus does not give any information about the population of elephants. You need a few assumptions to make this work.
D
Much of the ivory imported as mammoth ivory just after the ban on ivory from African elephants went into effect was actually elephant ivory.
The stimulus explains that following the ban, there was a significant increase in mammoth ivory imports and a massive decrease once a technique to distinguish between the two ivories was implemented. You can assume that many ivory imports were mislabeled to get around the law.
E
Shortly after the importation of ivory from African elephants was outlawed, there was a sharp increase in the total amount of all ivory presented for importation into the U.S. and Canada.
The stimulus says that there was a massive increase in mammoth-labeled ivory, not an overall increase in the *total* amount of ivory imported.