Videocassette recorders (VCRs) enable people to watch movies at home on videotape. ██████ ███ ███ ████ ██ ██ █████ ████████ ████ █████ ████ ██ ██████ ███ ██ ███ ███ █████ ████████ ██ ███████ ███████ ██████████ ██████ █ ███ ████████ ██████████ ██████ ██ ██ ██ █████ ████████ ████ █████ ████ ████ █████████ ██████
The author hypothesizes that owning a VCR prompts people to go to the movie theater more. She bases this on a correlation: people who tend to go to the movies more often also own a VCR.
This is a cookie-cutter “correlation does not imply causation” flaw, where the author sees a positive correlation and jumps to the conclusion that one thing causes the other, without ruling out alternative hypotheses. Specifically, she overlooks two key alternatives:
(1) The causal relationship could be reversed—maybe going to movies more causes people to get VCRs, not the other way around.
(2) Some other, underlying factor could be causing the correlation—maybe there’s something that causes people to both go to the movies and buy VCRs. (Maybe they simply like movies in general?)
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