PT140.S2.Q12 > Question

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The author concludes that humans won’t encounter water shortages in the near future, even if population growth trends don't change. This is because the human population currently uses only a small portion of the fresh water supply.

The author draws a conclusion based on only one piece of evidence: our current water use as a proportion of total freshwater. Because the author doesn't consider other factors that may be relevant to water shortages, one way to weaken would be by identifying another relevant consideration that suggests shortages in the near future are more likely than they seem.

The argument already takes variable population trends into account: phrased differently, the conclusion is that even if population trends stay the same, there won't be shortages. Because this doesn't depend on actually guessing about population changes, the difficulty of predicting trends makes no difference.

In other words, not everyone has equal access to fresh water. This means that some regions might experience severe shortages with only a small amount of growth, because they can't access abundant freshwater across the globe. Pointing out this relevant but overlooked consideration weakens the argument.

The author doesn't claim that humans must adopt water conservation methods in order to avoid shortages. In fact, almost the opposite—if we're using so little of the available water, why conserve? Because the argument isn't based on future conservation, saying that it won't happen doesn't weaken.

The author is specifically talking about the “near future.” "Eventually" running out of resources allows a much longer time frame, so this is simply beyond the scope of the argument.

We don't know the relative percentages of agriculture and industry water use, or how quickly either is actually likely to grow. Besides, the author says we have plenty of fresh water as it is. We can’t assume that growth in agriculture water use will deplete the fresh water supply without more concrete information.

PrepTest 140 - Section 2 - Question 12

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