LSAT 122 – Section 1 – Question 16

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Curve Question
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PT122 S1 Q16
+LR
+Exp
Weaken +Weak
Causal Reasoning +CausR
A
4%
157
B
7%
156
C
70%
164
D
18%
160
E
1%
153
136
151
165
+Medium 146.495 +SubsectionMedium

With decreased production this year in many rice-growing countries, prices of the grain on world markets have increased. Analysts blame this increase on the fact that only a small percentage of world production is sold commercially, with government growers controlling most of the rest, distributing it for local consumption. With so little rice being traded freely, even slight changes in production can significantly affect the amount of rice available on world markets.

Summarize Argument: Phenomenon-Hypothesis
The phenomenon is that world rice production decreased and prices increased. Analysts hypothesize that the price increase is due to the fact that most of the world's rice is controlled by governments and distributed for local use, with only a small portion being sold commercially. Because so little rice is sold commercially, minor fluctuations in production can significantly impact market supply.

Notable Assumptions
The analysts assume that because only a small amount of rice is sold commercially, it must be that a decrease in market supply caused the price increase. In other words, the analysts assume that no other factor could have caused the price increase.

A
Rice-importing countries reduce purchases of rice when the price increases dramatically.
This doesn’t affect the analysts’ explanation. (A) discusses how rice-importing countries react to price increases, but not the cause of the price increase, which is what the analysts’ explanation is about.
B
In times of decreased rice production, governments store more of the rice they control and reduce their local distribution of rice.
This doesn’t affect the analysts’ explanation. Governments choosing to store and reduce their distribution of rice should not impact market dynamics (i.e., price increases) because the rice they control was never part of the market anyway.
C
In times of decreased rice production, governments export some of the rice originally intended for local distribution to countries with free grain markets.
This weakens the analysts’ explanation. It challenges the assumption that the price increase is due to limited market supply by introducing the idea that, in periods of low production, world market supply is supplemented by governments who usually distribute their supply locally.
D
Governments that distribute the rice crop for local consumption purchase the grain commercially in the event of production shortfalls.
This strengthens the analysts’ explanation. It indicates that when supply is limited, governments who distribute rice locally turn to the world market for additional supply, strengthening the idea that periods of low production can greatly affect the world market supply of rice.
E
During reduced rice harvests, rice-importing countries import other kinds of crops, although this fails to compensate for decreased rice imports.
This does not affect the analysts’ explanation, which discusses how the world market supply of rice affects the price of rice—other kinds of crops are not relevant.

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