Last week while out climbing I came across this sign, which makes for a great Math exercise. I'm gonna give you a series of questions to answer. Post your answers to them all, or just one, or a few you feel confident in.
I'm off on another trip this weekend, but when I get back I'll loop around and give feedback on everyone's answers. I might even choose a winner to give some kind of prize. No guarantees on that last part lol.
Here's the challenge.
---
---
Based on these graphs and the text above, I've come to two conclusions:
i) 5.8 is the most dangerous climbing grade in Eldo.
ii) Most accidents on 5.8 routes in Eldo are a result of leader falls.
Please provide correct answer choices to the following questions. Bonus points for wording them as closely to real LSAT answers as possible. I encourage you to look at example Math questions for guidance on phrasing.
1: Why is each conclusion vulnerable to criticism?
2: For each conclusion, what fact, if true, would undermine that conclusion?
3: For each conclusion, what fact, if true, would support that conclusion?
4: For each conclusion, what question, if true, would help us determine the truth of that conclusion?
5: For each conclusion, what is an assumption required for that conclusion to follow from the information in the photo?
6: For each conclusion, what assumption would allow that conclusion to be properly inferred from the information in the photo?
8 comments
1: Why is each conclusion vulnerable to criticism?
i) 5.8 is the most dangerous climbing grade in Eldo.
Just because 5.8 routes have the greatest proportion of climbing accidents doesn't meant they are the most dangerous. Proportion of accidents does not necessarily equal danger. For instance, 5.13 routes could actually be the most dangerous/lethal due to their level of difficulty, which is actually why the number of accidents is quite small (1%), since everyone who climbs knows how dangerous those routes are and aims to avoid them.
ii) Most accidents on 5.8 routes in Eldo are a result of leader falls.
46% of frequent accident types are due to a leader fall. However, just because 5.8 routes are where the most number of accidents have taken place does not equate to the most frequent accident types. For instance, the 46% of leader fall accidents could be spread equally amongst the remaining 8 routes or just among routes 5.8-5.10.
2: For each conclusion, what fact, if true, would undermine that conclusion?
i) 5.8 is the most dangerous climbing grade in Eldo.
While accidents on 5.8 routes typically result in minor hand sprains that can be treated at home, accidents on 5.9 routes and above mostly lead to hospitalization and surgery.
ii) Most accidents on 5.8 routes in Eldo are a result of leader falls.
Leader falls typically only occur on lower level routes (5.7 and below) since leader falls are caused by leaders being inadequately trained and ill prepared.
3: For each conclusion, what fact, if true, would support that conclusion?
i) 5.8 is the most dangerous climbing grade in Eldo.
5.8 routes tend to be the least consistently repaired compared to other routes, making the likelihood of injury more likely.
ii) Most accidents on 5.8 routes in Eldo are a result of leader falls.
Beginners are most likely to start with the 5.8 route as their first climb. When beginners try being leaders, they often fall due to tension and anxiety about their first climb.
4: For each conclusion, what question, if true, would help us determine the truth of that conclusion?
i) 5.8 is the most dangerous climbing grade in Eldo.
What is the rate of fatality/hospitalization for accidents at each route grade?
ii) Most accidents on 5.8 routes in Eldo are a result of leader falls.
To what extent are leader falls related to route grade number?
5: For each conclusion, what is an assumption required for that conclusion to follow from the information in the photo?
i) 5.8 is the most dangerous climbing grade in Eldo.
It is not the case that 5.12 routes are the most fatal for climbers.
ii) Most accidents on 5.8 routes in Eldo are a result of leader falls.
Most accidents on 5.8 routes in Eldo are not the result of unroped and solo falls.
6: For each conclusion, what assumption would allow that conclusion to be properly inferred from the information in the photo?
i) 5.8 is the most dangerous climbing grade in Eldo.
If a route grade has the highest proportion/number of accidents, then it is the most dangerous climbing grade in Eldo.
ii) Most accidents on 5.8 routes in Eldo are a result of leader falls.
If most accidents in Eldo have a cause, then most accidents on 5.8 routes will have that same cause.
@og8888 Excellent answers. My notes:
I hadn't thought of this lens on the concept of danger! I was too focused on the % vs. # stuff. Excellent example of how LSAT questions can feature more than one perspective on a flaw.
This is great, and I'll just note that a real LSAT answer choice would just cut out the "making the..." clause.
Interestingly, this one fails to strengthen the "most" claim by LSAT standards. It tells us why many 5.8 accidents are due to leader falls, but we'd need information about the relative frequency of other accident types for this to strengthen.
One: This was fun! You should do this more often!!!
Two: A prize? 😏
1.
Conclusion i) is vulnerable to criticism because the fact that accidents in grade 5.8 occur more frequently than any other grade can potentially be explained by the fact that grade 5.8 is the most attempted route. If, for example, 1000 climbers attempted grade 5.8, whereas only a few dozen attempted the rest, then the fact that only 20% of all climbing accidents happened in grade 5.8 suggests that it could be the safest climbing grade.
Conclusion ii) is vulnerable to criticism because the fact that most climbing accidents in Eldo are a result of leader falls does not mean that this proportion will hold for every subset of these accidents. Noting that accidents on 5.8 routes make up only 20% of all accidents, it is possible that none of the 5.8 route accidents are a result of leader falls.
2.
i) Due to its being the most beginner-friendly, the vast majority of climbers attempt route 5.8 before ever attempting other routes.
ii) Nearly all climbing accidents that occur on routes with a grade above 5.8 are due to leader falls.
3.
i) Because of rumors about being haunted, route 5.8 is only attempted by climbers in the morning and afternoon, but most climbers only have time to attempt routes in the evening.
ii) Accidents due to leader falls are less likely to occur on route 5.8 compared to route 5.9 but more likely to occur compared to the overall likelihood that a certain accident on one of the routes is due to a leader fall.
4.
i) Is the most dangerous route the one on which the highest number of accidents occurred?
ii) Is the accident type distribution of the accidents that occurred on route 5.8 representative of the accident type distribution of all route accidents in Eldo?
5.
i) The relative level of danger of one particular route is not only determinable by factors that have no correlation with the frequency of accidents that occur on that route.
ii) If round-number enthusiasts are the only ones that attempt route 5.10, leader fall-caused accidents are not the only type of accident that these enthusiasts get into.
6.
i) The most dangerous route is the one on which the highest number of accidents has occurred.
ii) The accident type distribution of the accidents that occurred on route 5.8 is representative of the accident type distribution of all route accidents in Eldo.
@PowerUp_Tutoring You're a tutor?!? Having fun?!? No prize 4 U!
I love the creativity in this. It mirrors the random nonsense they're totally allowed to bring into WSE questions.
This one isn't strictly necessary, since even if 5.10 climbers (or round-number-enthusiast-5.10-climbers) are responsible for a disproportionate amount of leader falls, the same could be true for 5.8 climbers. That is, taking this away doesn't destroy the argument.
@MichaelWright Ah. I was more focused on what the argument had to assume in order to make its conclusion. The argument had to assume that the accident type pie chart is representative for each route type, and I was attacking that assumption by suggesting that different routes could have different distributions.
But now that I look at it, you ever stated any argument; all you have are conclusions. 🤦♀️
We're all familiar with the idea that a great way to learn is by teaching. By the same token, one excellent way to master LSAT questions is to write them.
Which actually makes me realize you should write wrong answers too. Maybe reply below this comment with wrong answers only. For sure you get super duper style points for having the trickiest wrong answer to one of these questions.
@MichaelWright I figured I'd take a stab at writing a few wrong answers in an LSAT style. My idea was to make them tempting enough that I'd probably hesitate before eliminating them. I struggle with these the most so that's why I picked them.
Conclusion: "Routes rated 5.8 are the most dangerous climbing routes."
Weaken: Climbers attempting routes rated 5.8 tend to have more climbing experience than climbers attempting routes rated 5.6.
it never addresses the real issue the chart tells us the percentage of accidents, not the accident rate.
Necessary Assumption: Every climbing accident results in an injury requiring medical attention.
the argument is about accidents, not injuries.
Evaluate the Argument: Do climbers generally prefer routes rated between 5.7 and 5.10?
"preference" isn't what matters. The question is how many climbers actually attempt each route grade, I feel like this is the most subtle of them all
@CoreyQ
I love this one b/c it prompts this internal monologue of "does experience relate to fall likelihood? Probably yes? Maybe?" all while, as you say, being just off to the side of the real issue.
The argument is about danger, which is a loose enough concept to include both accident number and injury. Your answer choice is still a good wrong one, though, because of its strong wording.
Hell yeah this one's spot on.