Anyone wanna throw out a prediction for the new T14?

canihazJD

https://blog.spiveyconsulting.com/understanding-and-implications-of-the-new-usnwr-law-school-rankings-methodology/

First, 3% weight will be applied to the average amount of graduate debt incurred by students in the previous year’s graduating class. Only students who have taken on law school debt will be counted in this metric. Higher average debt will hurt; lower average debt will help.

Second, 2% weight will be applied to the proportion of a school’s graduating class who incurred law school debt. Again, higher proportions will hurt; lower proportions will help.

To make room for these new factors, U.S. News has reduced the weighting of two categories. The “Selectivity” factors have been reduced from 25% weight to 21%. Median test scores will now count for 11.25% of rankings, median GPA will count for 8.75%, and acceptance rate will count for 1%.

The Faculty Resources metric has been reduced from 15% weight to 14%.

Some data to play with from LST: https://data.lawschooltransparency.com/costs/debt/?scope=schools

School Avg Loan % of students
Yale University $134,763 70%
Stanford University $147,385 62%
Harvard University $169,968 69%
Columbia University $172,656 65%
University of Chicago $168,429 64%
New York University $168,745 64%
Pennsylvania $167,993 64%
University of Virginia $162,395 63%
Berkeley $154,203 67%
Northwestern $135,597 65%
University of Michigan $126,425 72%
Duke University $143,774 68%
Cornell University $154,195 66%
Georgetown $166,164 66%

UCLA $126,164 69%
Texas $109,189 60%
WUSTL $101,283 65%
USC $131,938 69%
Vanderbilt $121,684 70%

Spivey predictions before the new methodology was announced: https://blog.spiveyconsulting.com/2022-usnwr-law-school-rankings-predictions/

(1) Yale
(2) Stanford
(3) Harvard
(4) Columbia
(4) Chicago
(6) New York University
(7) Penn
(8) University of Virginia
(9) University of California- Berkeley
(9) Northwestern
(11) University of Michigan
(11) Duke
(13) Cornell
(13) Georgetown

(15) University of California- Los Angeles
(16) Washington University in St. Louis
(17) University of Texas- Austin
(17) Vanderbilt
(17) University of Southern California

I'm thinking Chicago edges out CLS, the current 3 way split at 9 breaks up. Just outside maybe WUSTL bumps UT. All in good fun... I think rankings come out on the 30th. Also I am apparently incapable of formatting in markdown.

SufficientCondition

Wow, great post @canihazJD ! I love data-driven projections, and will likely return after I've chewed on this later this weekend. STILL, just let me add a contraindication to my own zeal:
https://leiterlawschool.typepad.com/leiter/2021/03/your-annual-reminder-about-movements-in-the-us-newscom-rankings.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+typepad%2FKiyu+%28Brian+Leiter%27s+Law+School+Reports%29.
I appreciate Professor Leiter's perspective on the ever-looming rankings, as well!

T-200 or bust

WUSTL for 16 !!!

canihazJD

@SufficientCondition said:
Wow, great post @canihazJD ! I love data-driven projections, and will likely return after I've chewed on this later this weekend. STILL, just let me add a contraindication to my own zeal: https://leiterlawschool.typepad.com/leiter/2021/03/your-annual-reminder-about-movements-in-the-us-newscom-rankings.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed:+typepad/Kiyu+(Brian+Leiter's+Law+School+Reports).
I appreciate Professor Leiter's perspective on the ever-looming rankings, as well!

Thanks and I love Leiter's coverage of academia. I don't even know I'd say it's a contraindication. Just a good reminder overall of the flawed methodology we're forced to play with here (and of with any ranking system really), and the value of long-term trends over-short term movement.

Aside, just in case anyone hasn't seen it because I love this graphic: https://7sage.com/top-law-school-rankings/

SufficientCondition

I guess I missed this, since the rankings seem to have come out yesterday? I think the changes are in the right direction in general. It's easy for me as an armchair analyst, but the one metric I wish they would adopt in lieu of loans and % in debt is avg debt three or five years after graduating. The quibble is that the metrics as outlined could push status-conscious schools to accept more well-off students, since their families would be able to help both the % of students in debt and the average amount of that debt. Relative figures after a stint in the legal workforce would be more telling. Reducing the impact of admit rate is welcome since that is easily gamed.

The changes to the rankings were small and likely took the magnitude they did to avoid any drastic changes. Still, I thought Northwestern, UC Berkeley, and Duke would rise in the rankings. Also, thought George Mason might rise due to its low cost of attendance. Did not see UCLA breaking the glass ceiling. Also, harbored a thought that Stanford might pass Yale. Because I think Yale's employment/bar passage stats aren't that great? Would love to have an ear on the conversations going on at GULC right now... Also, a lot of ties further down the list, which must be frustrating as I imagine those in that middle part of the Top 50 care the most about rankings.

I think these are the new rankings:
1. Yale
2. Stanford
3. Harvard
4. Columbia
4. Chicago
6. NYU
6. UPenn
8. UVirginia
9. UC Berkeley
10. Duke
10. Michigan
12. Northwestern
13. Cornell
14. UCLA
15. Georgetown
16. UTexas
16. Vanderbilt
16. WashU
19. USC
20. BU
....