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1 Like
Breakdown of Applicants and Applications for 2018 Admission Cycle
smartaone2
Alum Member
Comments
Looks like people are getting better at the LSAT.
Thanks for sharing!
@PublicInterested exactly. You're welcome!
No wonder some 175+ LSAT scorers are not seeing the results they expect.
There are several hundred extra of us running around. Even Harvard doesn't want/need us all like they usually would.
This certainly increases pressure for my upcoming June LSAT...
Totally. I think it's partially a product of the unlimited takes now. I've seen a good number of people say they've taken the test 5 or 6 times. It's definitely going to start increasing scores across the board.
Keep in mind though that Spivey still expects next year's cycle to be less competitive!!!
So this may not be the case for next year since #of applicants is expected to drop
I really hope Spivey's prediction of next cycle holds up. I wonder why he thinks next cycle will be less competitive though, it just seems strange because of the huge amount of applicants this cycle. Unless there's some reason like the economy sinks or less KJD graduates, I'd expect next cycle to be at least just as competitive. But Spivey is a pro, and I hope he's right.
Agreed...sigh.
Great point! @"Leah M B"
I actually think unlimited takes has a minimal, if any, impact on increased scores. Might be just me, but taking the LSAT twice in a row - let alone three of four times - was more than my brain could handle. One's brain can only take so much LSAT preparation, especially when facing two or more closely clustered actual LSAT administrations.
My theory is that as more samples of LSAT become available, people have more materials to prepare and LSAC a smaller spectrum of curveballs - hence better scores.
I hope this is the case.
True on the more prep tests being available. But we're talking about a significant 1 year spike. 1 year's worth of PTs doesn't make much difference. I'd think having extra chances to up your score would be more of a factor.
Combined with the unlimited retake and more information about the benefits of attending T13 being available, I can see why scores are increasing. People understand that the benefits of maximizing their score and people who otherwise wouldnt have retaken are retaking. Also, the Trump Bump increased the number of test takers.
This year we saw a "Trump Bump."
Sorry I think I missed something... what is the Trump Bump?
http://www.abajournal.com/news/article/the_trump_bump_for_law_school_applicants_is_real_and_significant_survey_say
A rise in the number of law school applicants, caused by dissatisfaction with the current administration (e.g. "My immigrant friend got deported," "I want to rectify governmental injustices").
Wow unreal. Thank you for the link!
This could be a dictionary definition, thank you!
@PearsonSpecterLittUp @Patroclus i've been wondering why he thinks that too! if you go back and look historically, once an upswing starts, it's not a one-year affair... and why would the trump bump be only a one year thing?
Trump's campaign was pretty frightening for some. If cycle size doesn't continue to rise next year, it's probably because it rose so sharply this year, and so will rebound slightly.
Maybe it will decrease by slightly but in the next few years, there will be an overall increase. Maybe the reason why next year will be a slight decrease because alot the test takers who already took the exam thrice and didn't get the score they wanted due to extenuating circumstances were able to retake into their desired score range. Or maybe the decrease is due to regression towards the mean.
A couple of things.
@Patroclus
A collapse in the economy would make more people go to law school not fewer. People go to law and grad school to escape bad economic times. An advanced degree looks a lot better when you can't get a job.
@westcoastbestcoast
The Trump bump would explain a higher number of testers and law school applicants, but not why they would do better or why the gains in scores would be so concentrated at the very top. If anything these applicants going based on Trump probably should have had less time to do things like learn about and study for the LSAT which should normally be necessary to get these kinds of scores.
Unlimited retakes, information stressing the importance of the Top 13 and even scholarships within the Top 13, and better more well know LSAT prep availability are all decent explanations. However, none of them explain the suddenness of the rise this year very well.
Another explanation which seems insufficient is that driven by fear of changes like the GRE's increased usage people who would normally wait a while to apply, but either already had or could get great scores applied before the LSAT becames devalued. It is hard to imagine this effecting enough people to explain what we are seeing though.
Maybe Trump is a particularly good motivator for all the super smart 170+ scorers.
You do bring valid points @"Seeking Perfection" . I can answer one of your questions, the one about the Trump. I believe the ABA or Kaplan conducted survey which revealed that a significant percentage applied to law school this year because of trump. Maybe this percentage of people who applied because of the Trump bump were self selected, meaning those who already had a higher diagnostic were willing to apply to combat Trumps policies. Just a wild guess
I'm still skeptical. It's not so much that the Trump Bump would extend to the good LSAT takers which bothers me. It's that it would effect them so much more than the lesser takers.
To your explanation, how many people do we think dabble with applying, score near the upper 170s, and then look to political conditions to make their decision? It could happen in individual cases, but it seems unlikely to me to be happening on a broad scale.
Additionally, even according to the ABA article only 32% of takers said they were influenced by the election to apply. If that was spread evenly across the score distribution it couldn't explain the 68% increase in 175+ applicants. Additionally, those 32% didn't say they wouldn't have applied if not for Trump.
If the Trump Bump explains the applicant boost, why aren't there a bunch of bad LSAT takers who think they can resist Trump by applying to law school?
I appreciate the thought though and as I said I don't have a better explanation. I just don't think a reaction to Trump is the whole picture.
We could get into the link between liberalism and intelligence? I don't know, though, that is a touchy one.
I don't think it's all Trump. I think it's a normal upswing boosted by Trump's political approach.
...Which is why I'm so reluctant to buy the Trump Bump argument. I am also inclined to think that a single controversial presidency is a terrible reason for committing oneself to legal education at the cost of 3 years of life and hundreds of thousands of dollars; I don't think I'm the only law school applicant who has this outlook.
(Then again, there were quite a number of people who cried the day after the election; evidently the degree of damn I give about politics isn't quite the same as theirs. Who am I to judge?)
As for the 32% of the respondents, I'm thinking there is at least one person who would have lacked a solid reason for going into the legal field if inquired in a previous survey, and still does but decided to blame Trump nonetheless because... well, it's Trump.
This is an oversimplification. Many people care a good deal about politics and are bothered by the shape of the current political landscape. Trump would have been more or less the straw that broke the camel's back.
"(Then again, there were quite a number of people who cried the day after the election; evidently the degree of damn I give about politics isn't quite the same as theirs...)"
I should have mentioned that too. At least half or a third or whatever of people are liberals. Of those, quite a few are pretty rabidly anti-Trump.
Less than 1 percent of people score above a 175.
So even if strongly anti-Trump people most likely to be motivated to go into law by his presidency were all smarter than their non anti-Trump peers, the diatribution of score increases still isn't easilly explained.
Alternatively, Trump could have motivated few to take the LSAT and apply to law school, but could spring to many liberal applicants' minds as the source of lots of legal conflicts where they would oppose him.
It's always nice to put an altruistic spin on what you are doing with your life.
The "Trump Bump" may provide some explanation for the increase in LSAT takers. Those who are pro Trump or anti-Trump. I honestly, believe people are just getting better with "beating" the LSAT so to say with programs such as 7Sage. We've read many here who have done just that. Not sure if there is any other reasoning for the increase in so many top scorers.
I really hope it's a statistical anomaly and not what @"Leah M B" said about the multiple retakes.
I feel like this really skews the exam towards the test takers who have the financial ability to take the exam 5,6,7 times until they finally get the score they want....
According to this chart, the number of applicants overall is up by almost 10%. According to LSAC the number of tests administered last year was up by 18%. So, yes, multiple retakes is probably a factor here.
But this chart just looks at applicants and not total test takers. A reason this chart may be more skewed towards more higher scores for applicants is because people are getting more savvy about not applying unless they get a higher or target score.
Not just that people are getting better at taking the test overall. And it's not just that high scorers weren't going to apply before but now bc of politics they suddenly are applying. My guess is more overall are bothering to take the test because of politics and a subset of them (with high scores) are pulling the trigger and applying.
@ROI, sadly, I think it probably is true that those who can afford to retake it multiple times are better off especially with the new rules, since they are more likely to have an "optimal test day" and now law schools can more easily pick and choose between a 175 and a 179 (both phenomenal scores). Hopefully schools will be sensible and weigh the rest of the application more for these folks.
.
Nah. That's not how it works. LSAC already compensates for fluctuations like this by removing certain scores from the scale.
Yeah, I like this. I think Trump was definitely not the primary motivator for most. If anything political is responsible for someone's decision to apply to law school, it would be party polarization and the more long-term antics of certain political parties.
I was noticing in the Spivey data..that among the test taking pool a 173 is top 0.9%, but among the applicant pool it is only like top 2.75% if my memory serves me right, and I'm sure it would be that way for numerous other scores down and up the scale since those scoring in the 120's/130's/140's aren't submitting apps. Just an interesting thing to note that our test percentile is actually prob watered down among our fellow applicants
@Patroclus I see you everyday on LSAC's website. You are a true inspiration.
Logically, I feel like it makes more sense to believe that the competition will increase with time. Towards the end of thus cycle, LSAC opened more administration dates. There is the unlimited retake policy and more schools allowing GRE scores. All of this seems to illustrate that there will be more applicants
Some of the discussion on Reddit echoes this view. Seems like it's just going to keep getting more and more competitive due to the GRE and unlimited retakes.
The GRE is really giving the lsac a run for it's money.