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For those who couldn't catch it, could you explain what led you to that conclusion? Nervous lol
I wonder how harder it will be. I guess more people are going to apply law school in order to hide from the recession. It sucks
I got the impression that it's up in the air. There might be a slight increase in competitiveness, but schools don't seem like they're going to grant mass deferrals. They will consider case by case evaluations for deferrals, like international students who cannot get visas. They did mention that scholarships might decrease due to budget hits caused by covid (sad for those of us applying this fall
), so they recommended that people don't withdraw admissions now and plan to reapply.
@umich101 I got the impression that a lot of accepted fall '20 1L's are thinking about deferring because of the likelihood of online programming in the fall. This would push a lot of applicants into the '21 cycle, therefore making it a more competitive cycle. Dean Guzman of USC stated that if there is a larger pool of applicants, schools have the ability to be more selective. More applicants also means less scholarship $$, and if your 1L class is big, this also means a more competitive job market post-graduation. Hope this helps!
@rqun3737 I feel you there. I am a splitter (2.8 gpa and PT'ing in the mid 160's), so I am very worried about my chances of getting in now.
i missed the webinar. will it be posted somewhere?
I missed this. I'm worried now.
Every year is competitive in the last 5 years.
Did the webinar discuss if schools will extend their application/commitment deadlines?
No webinar replays have been available, but a lot of people post notes on Reddit and such. Also LSAT Unplugged and the Powerscore LSAT podcast keep up with the webinars.
Definitely got that impression. If you caught the madness that was the comments/Q&A section I'm the one that asked for the deans to comment on distinguishing between applicants who intentionally leave their jobs for law schools vs. those who are doing it (or were laid off) as a plan to "ride out" a possible recession. I made a quick decision to wait an extra year and give myself more time to get my life in order and dedicate myself to the LSAT before applying... definitely feel like I screwed myself.
I'm a splitter with a 3.2x gpa, 5 years out of school, will have an MS completed (part time) upon applying, and am currently hovering in the low 160s (BRs 170s). T14 goal for public interest law (so also looking wherever I can get the most $...). Hearing that my fears that schools' endowments are taking a hit in the markets and will be less likely to give scholarships was very upsetting. (This fear is based on '08/'09 ug admissions data I learned about while I was an undergad.) Dean Guzman made a good point advising admitted students to still do 1L even if it's online because they will be better positioned in the job market... but I'm not sure how many people will think about that over their learning preferences re: IRL vs. online courses.
Spivey posted LSAT registration stats on reddit last week and interestingly, there’s been a big drop in LSAT registrations (June 2020 is down ~25% from June 2019 iirc). It’s possible that deferrals and R&R will increase the competitiveness of the next cycle, and it’s possible there’ll be a surge in July, August, and October registrations, but at this point it’s also entirely possible that fewer people are taking the LSAT and applying for fall 2021 admission. Next cycle might not be much more competitive at all.
Yeah for anyone worried about it being more competitive - I would consider the fact that schools (based on what I heard in the webinar, if anyone reads competing info please correct me) aren’t going to grant mass deferrals to people due to online class aversion. I doubt people who already accepted offers from their top choices are going to want to withdraw, reapply, and risk a rejection or acceptance with smaller scholarship. I could imagine a scenario where someone accepted a second/third/etc choice school that they were less enthused to attend and decide to withdraw a deposit and reapply.
I think it is still too early to speculate on how law schools are going to treat admissions for the Fall 2021 cycle. While I can understand a scenario where competitiveness increases because Fall 2020 1Ls defer to the next year, this scenario does not take into account the other cyclical forces that could wreak havoc on universities.
While some of the more elite universities are more immune to this, recessions generally result in decreases to tuition-generated revenue at major universities. This is especially true for universities that are reliant on tuition revenue from international students. In the last recession, some prominent law schools (I'm thinking GWU, NYU, but others are out there) saw falling enrollment, and had to use their graduate programs as a revenue buffer. At GWU, for instance, admission rates rose.
I can envision a scenario where competitiveness for the next law cycle is about on par with what we have seen for the last 5-10 so year.
From the webinar, I also got the impression that it'll be more competitive. I remember Julie (Indiana) saying that she's expecting a smaller incoming size for this year. She said she pulled 2 out from their waitlist, but she also said that she's not expecting to do that often. I'm guessing they would rather accept a smaller incoming size than pull people off from their waitlist (probably due to ranking).
I also remember Dean Guzman saying that he probably will going to be hesitant in granting mass deferrals, but it was also him who said that people considering to defer should just enroll this year since he's expecting more applications and a strong pool for next year plus a smaller portion of scholarships. He might have said that just so that he could attract more people for this year (but hey it's USC and LA is beautiful). It seemed like the GWU dean agreed with him in seeing a larger and stronger pool for the next cycle.
Even if people are not granted official deferrals, I can still see people not going. They've already missed a couple of events and opportunities to grow network with people in their schools before enrolling. If classes go online, networking stays difficult during that important year. Schools might make classes Pass/Fail like many did this semester. Things might look different when landing on internships in the summer (to firms that look at 1L grades) or to people who were looking into that one-time golden opportunity to transfer to a higher-ranked school which happens after 1L. School ranking might have gotten even more important now (for landing on summer internships, transferring schools, or getting a job after law school during a recession). People accepted to T-14 schools (or T-20 even) might have fewer incentives to defer, but those outside might have more incentives to defer. If those same people re-apply to the same schools, it is more likely that they will be accepted again than they will not, with their same stats plus some more work/volunteer experience. How to explain gaps in your resume? - how about private tutoring or helping out a family member during COVID-19.
But these are all speculations, and who knows what'll actually happen.
I was guessing that there'll be less competitiveness in fall 2021 because more ppl would no longer be able to afford tuition and housing and online classes would definetely attract less and less students fot enrolling since most law school students need practical & in-person classes. This is what I was thinking. Well, lsat got cancelled and changed into FLEX is also an indicator that students delay on enrollment. Sigh.
I think once we know the formats---in-person, online, or blended--of universities and law schools during the upcoming year and whether the format affects tuition, it may influence the admissions numbers. Plus the employment numbers from the next few months and continuing.
more competitive or not try not to obsess about it just study consistently and apply when your application is the strongest thats all you can do. dont worry to much.