PT144.S1.P4.Q22 > Analytics

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Passage A.

Intro to Popper · Power of negative evidence

A single black swan disproves that all swans are white

Asymmetry · Between positive and negative evidence

Positive evidence has no value

Requirements of Science · Search for negative evidence; making falsifiable predictions

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Critique of Popper · Negative evidence is not as powerful as he believes

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Premise · Theories have to work together to entail predictions

So a failed prediction means some theory is false, but it's unclear which one.

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Prediction · Orbit of Uranus

Multiple theories working together to entail the predictions. This can be framed as an application of Passage A.

Prediction · Failed

At least one of the theories is wrong.

Passage Style

22.

In passage B, which one ██ ███ █████████ ████ ███████ ███████████ █ ██████████ ██████ ██ █████████ ██ ███ ██████ ██ ███ ██████ █████████ ██ ███████ ██

Question Type

Application

This question is about how passage B relates to passage A, so we’ll need to read both passages before answering. Author A says that to derive a prediction from a theory, scientists need to assume the absence of disturbing forces. That is, they need to assume that other, overlooked forces out there in the world aren’t going to mess with the prediction. Author B then says that when scientists tried to predict Uranus’s orbit, they overlooked Neptune’s force of gravity, which messed with their prediction. So Neptune was a disturbing force.

Uranus

We’re looking for an example of some outside, overlooked force that affected a prediction. But scientists tried to predict Uranus’s orbit, making Uranus the focus of a prediction, rather than a disturbing force that affected that prediction.

the sun

Author A suggests disturbing forces are those that are overlooked or unaccounted for. When making predictions, she says, scientists need to assume that any such forces aren’t going to mess with their predictions. But in passage B, scientists accounted for the sun. It wasn’t an unexpected factor that messed anything up. So it’s not a good example of a disturbing force.

Neptune

Author A says that to derive a prediction from a theory, scientists need to assume the absence of disturbing forces. That is, they need to assume other forces out there in the world aren’t going to mess with the prediction. Author B then says that when scientists tried to predict Uranus’s orbit, they overlooked Neptune’s force of gravity, which messed with their prediction. So Neptune was a disturbing force.

86%

Mercury

We’re looking for an example of some outside, overlooked force that affected a prediction. But scientists tried to predict Mercury’s orbit, making Mercury the focus of a prediction, rather than a disturbing force that affected that prediction.

the moon

The moon isn’t mentioned in passage B, so it can’t be an illustration of anything.

PrepTest 144 - Section 1 - Passage 4 - Question 22

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