With Presidents’ Day in the rearview mirror, law school admissions officers are beginning one of their key stretches of the admissions cycle. Working backwards from the future to the present:

  • If a school has a deposit deadline sometime between April 1 and May 1,
  • That means that they want to host admitted students on campus for recruitment events from mid-March through mid-April,
  • Which means that they need to get their last big waves of admit offers out the door by early March,
  • And, well, how about that, February ends next week. But at least it’s a leap year so they get one more day to read applications. They have that going for them.

So as AdComms hit their crunch time, let’s do a quick check-in on national app trends and then ask a dreaded existential question—how do you know when the admit waves will stop?

National App Figures and LSAT Registrations

Congratulations to those dear readers who were not petrified by our final question in the preceding paragraph and didn’t just jump right ahead!

Our weekly check-in on LSAC’s Current Volume Summaries report continues to show national apps rising gradually along with the late-winter temperatures. Last week’s report showed national applicants running 4.9% of last year’s pace while applications were up 0.5%. This week, we’re up just a smidge more on both fronts:

Of particular note is the half-percentage-point jump in applications. Perhaps folks were inspired by last week’s spate of application deadlines on February 15th!

Interestingly, though, applicants with 170+ LSAT scores continue not only to lag but to drop from last year’s pace. Last week, applicants in the 170-174 range were down 2.5% and folks in the 175+ range were down 1.1%. This week’s numbers show:

that things aren’t getting better.

Nor do matters look particularly bright when you break things down by individual scores:

Although one must admit that any school in the 167 or 168 range that hopes to boost its median score by a point has to be feeling pretty good right now.

The last gasp to see if this particular score bracket can resurrect itself will be when the February LSAT results go live on the 28th. Unlike admissions officers who are probably chagrined to have one more day of Reading Season during a leap year, applicants probably appreciate the extra opportunity to submit documents before any March 1 deadlines!

When the Waves Stop Crashing

At the beginning of each admissions cycle, one of the main questions we hear from students is “When will I get a decision from School X? When does School Y start making offers of admission?” As such, we spend a great deal of time talking about what schools have done in the past, how their travel calendar and staffing may affect things, etc., etc., etc.

But rare that students ask the reverse question—“How do you know when a school is done admitting students?” Maybe it doesn’t come up as much because to even ponder this question is practically bone-chilling. It’s just like a horror movie—the monster is scary … but it’s even scarier when you can’t see the monster.

Bad analogies aside, let’s dive into some data!

We regularly direct students towards the data charts on lsd.law, but this is mostly for the purposes of tracking decisions by LSAT and GPA. But it’s also a super useful website to try and suss out when and how schools make their decisions. My favorite school in this regard is Michigan Law—you can set your clock by when they issue decisions. Look at this beautiful chart using LSAT and Decision Date as the X and Y axes:

Bless them!

What you find pretty quickly is that Michigan sends out decisions every week. Admits go out on Wednesdays beginning in late October. Waitlists and denies go out on Fridays. The red line in early December is Early Decision applicants who were denied admission. But the real waves of red dots begin after the New Year with yellow dots joining the party in February.

But let’s now compare this year’s chart with last year’s:

That’s a bit cluttered, so let’s zoom in on the range between September and May. We know that anything after May 1 is waitlist activity. What we care about is what happens beforehand.

ENHANCE!

Good, but let’s make it even clearer by filtering out the red and yellow dots.

ENHANCE AGAIN!

Perfect!

From this chart, it’s pretty apparent that Michigan Law admitted students pretty consistently through February. You could make an argument that they had one last big week of decisions at the beginning of March. But it’s clear that we’re likely reaching the end of Michigan’s road.

On the other hand, there are some schools that likely have a longer home stretch ahead of them in the coming weeks. For instance, Stanford Law is known for being a school that can take a little longer to issue admissions decisions. Here’s their admit chart for last year, isolated for just the admits:

Based on last year, Stanford Law may be reaching the halfway mark of their admit offers!

And let’s take a look at NYU Law, a school that just placed a number of students on hold for further consideration. Here’s their chart from last year, again, just focused on admitted students:

NYU Law also placed a large number of students on hold last January and February, but then kept making offers consistently through early April.

Although every year is different, the best predictor of present action is the past. So go over to lsd.law, pore over the charts like you’re an ancient mariner trying to figure out the best tidal pattern for your trip, and then make your peace with the waves.

7Sage Events

A reminder that we will be hosting a Live Marquee Class on Tuesday, February 27 at 8 PM Eastern. 7Sage Admissions Consultants Taj McCoy (formerly of Berkeley Law) and Sam Riley (formerly of Texas-Austin Law) will be discussing the ins and outs of named scholarship awards and negotiations/reconsiderations with Carla Anderson, the Director of Operations for Admissions and Financial Aid at Penn Carey Law. They will answer questions from the audience as time permits. Registration is required, so be sure to sign up here.

Additionally, Taj and Sam will be hosting a new blog piece entitled “Dear AO.” Styled as a “Dear Abby” advice column, this is a chance for you to submit your questions and get feedback from some of our resident experts. We look forward to the first column arriving on February 28!