Jonathan Wang, The New York Times, and some real concerns

patrickjohnsont

Like many of you I read that NYTimes article featuring Jonathan and grew very concerned. Jonathan (and the other 7Sage mentors) represent a high bar: obviously smart, entrepreneurial, and graduates from great universities. I know that Jonathan clarified some of the article's mischaracterizations in an earlier post, but the point still sticks: now seems like a terrible time to go to law school. I'm considering pocketing my LSAT score for a few years till the market recovers. Thoughts?
article link: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/27/business/dealbook/burdened-with-debt-law-school-graduates-struggle-in-job-market.html?src=xps

Jinsu517

Maybe take this article into consideration too? This article is one of the few reasons I'm not completely pessimistic about my prospects.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-22/five-charts-that-show-you-should-apply-to-law-school-this-year

Pacifico

I think you are overlooking the fact that he graduated 5 years ago, which means he graduated at least 8 years (probably 9) before you would, so you have essentially already waited it out. When he graduated was a terrible time to graduate for a variety of reasons that have been beaten to death, and the general wisdom is that if you don't go right into practicing law (especially if you want biglaw as he did) then you run the risk of being unemployable the further removed from law school you are. I've seen this mentioned several times in different JD/MBA threads I have read because some people wonder if its better to start off in law or business. If you at least start off in law you are more likely to be able to leave and come back to it than if you were to start off as a consultant or something along those lines. As to the original issue, by most accounts it looks like we are at the tipping point and apps have just about bottomed out or will next year which means there will be far less entry level competition once you graduate.

hrjones44

Yeh that will be 8 years since then by the time any of us graduate assuming we get in this fall. It'll be ok u just have to make that decision if u wanna chance it or not. I probably will if I get into school this fall... I might think about it further if i have to keep pushing for next year's cycle.

blah170blah

Here's my understanding of the law school situation given this article, countless conversations with law school professors and graduates, and my own research. Take it for what you will.

Jonathan's class was hit the hardest by the recession. 2010 was a very, very bad year for law school graduates because the legal profession was already at a point of high saturation and now we had an economic climate where people/corporations are conserving money the best they can. Law school culture and its students has changed quite drastically since then.

My understanding is that many people in the class of 2010 went to law school for different reasons than ourselves. Back then, going to law school and a good one at that (T14) meant guaranteed job placement in a white shoe firm. This meant law schools are not only attracting students who want to practice law because they love the law but also students who believe this is a surety to guarantee them a good paying, respectable job, and all the freedoms that come with it. This idea that law school is a guarantee is something that almost nobody believes anymore as a direct result of the recession and its effects on law firms, law schools, and many law school graduates.

The calculation is no longer as go to a T14, and even a T10, and you will get a job out of law school. You have to do well in school. The shock waves of the recession are largely winding down so we don't have to deal with the fact that law firms are firing people left and right. However, they aren't gone. Some big law firms as recent as this year (Bingham, I think) have already merged and there is still an aura of job insecurity because there's still instability in the legal workplace. What we also have to remember is that many economists say that every healthy economy will experience recurring recessions every few decades, meaning the events of 2008-2010 won't be the last recession we see in our lifetime and certainly could happen in our prime working years. The recession, in my opinion, has changed the relationship between law school and the legal profession and is here to stay that way. I don't think we will see, at least in our lifetime, such a strong relationship between the two where law school is a surety to achieve job security.

What does all that say about now? Many times, people are confused as to why others say, "Don't go to law school" or "Don't go to a law school ranked outside of the T14." The reasoning is if you're going to law school to purely make money, there are less stressful and financially burdensome avenues. If you're sole desire in life is to make money, exhaust all options before choosing law school because it is hard and you have no sense of guarantee anymore. The prevalence of the second point speaks to the changing times. We have instances where the brightest minds can't get job security in the legal field -- good LSATs, good GPAs, and good pedigree, which are all qualities law firms want. Why is that? The supply of law school students overwhelms the demand for lawyers, especially post recession, so law firms get to be extremely picky in terms of who they choose to hire. To your question, now is actually a great time to go to law school because we are in a buyer's market. Schools that used to average high test scores are no longer in a position to do so, regardless of what their stated policy might be, because they're competing with other schools for the best and the brightest. However, whatever the demand may be for law school, it's an entirely different scenario for recruiting. The upper hand still belongs to the person behind the desk, holding our resumes and our futures in their hands. If law firms get to be increasingly picky, the reasoning is why would they pick student X from a Tier 2 over student y from a Tier 1. In most situations, ranking does matter and to assume that it doesn't is hubris in my opinion.

With that being said, there are still plenty of great reasons to go to law school. If you want to practice law, then the only way to do that is law school -- there is no other way. Do well in law school, especially your first year, and you should be okay. If you want to practice in a particular region, the disparity in ranking isn't too noticeable. While the legal market is definitely saturated, I do think ranking matters more so for the big markets: Chicago, New York, DC, SF, and LA. I have plenty of friends that graduated from regional schools and have jobs (less than the big law market rate of $160,000 but a job all the same). I do think regional schools, because they're even more concerned with rankings/graduation rates/ bar pass rates, etc. are more apt to go out of their way to ensure your success (e.g., providing internship opportunities, bar prep on campus, etc).

With all that being said, here are the biggest takeaways:
1) Law school is not a guaranteed thing anymore so if the only reason you're going is to get some job security anywhere, it's good to rethink that decision.
2) The legal field is competitive so school ranking and success in law school can drastically increase or decrease your odds in big law.
3) It's a great time for law school, difficult time for the legal profession and it will likely stay this way for some time.
4) Much of the advice given here and elsewhere is not meant to be mean spirited or discouraging. For many of us, we don't really know what we want because there is always some knowledge that we don't have at this time. We may want to work in public interest only now, but big law later. We may say Champaign, IL now of Chicago later on. It's rare that life pans out exactly the way we think. Given the uncertainties of law school and those generally felt in life, it's always sage to put yourself in the best position possible to achieve anything: whether it's what you initially set out to accomplish or something else.

DumbHollywoodActor

@blah170blah a well reasoned argument, as I’d expect.

Jonathan Wang

Most people who have an opinion about this have absolutely no idea what happened. It's just really hilarious to see people (not on this board, just in general) talk about how it wasn't a good decision to go to law school and how I and everyone else who got screwed (yes, that's a technical term) should have known the risks, as if what we know now was always known. No, moron, the only reason 'everyone' knows what we know now is BECAUSE me and a whole bunch of my classmates lived the nightmare and suffered the consequences. It was a combination of so many things - a perfect storm, if you will - and it really grinds my gears when people pick and choose aspects of it to suit their world views.

I have some students to get to right now, but I promise I will address this when I get a chance because I think it's a really important topic that deserves to be addressed by someone who was there firsthand.

Also, excellent post from @blah170blah, who covered most of the basics.

blah170blah

@DumbHollywoodActor @"Jonathan Wang"

*shucks*

NYC12345

@blah170blah and @"Jonathan Wang" make excellent points; however, there are many other variables in play when it comes to getting a job out of law school. Firstly, going to a T14 school gives one a great chance of getting a biglaw job, while regional schools only send the top 5-10% into big law firms (and mediocre firms at that). But as @blah170blah pointed out, getting an offer at an elite firm does not only take getting a degree from a top school, but you need stellar grades. Firms like Wachtell and Cravath wouldn't even consider hiring someone at the middle of the class at Harvard. Honors and law review are necessary. While not everyone can get an offer at an elite firm,I find it highly unlikely that a Columbia, NYU, UVA, or Cornell (etc.) grad can't get a job at an average big law firm (think McDermott, Pillsbury, etc.) that pays market. Also, not everyone at top schools wants to work at a large firm, even if given the option. Some want to work in public interest or work for a corporation. Some law students summer at firms and goof off, flirt with employees, or curse at firm lunches and are not invited back. Statistics do not tell the entire picture. For example, only around a third of Yale works for big law firms. Now, some might interpret the employment statistics and conclude that Yale simply does not guarantee you a job at a large law firm, but is that really so? Anyone who is knowledgeable about law school and law firms know that firms would kill to get a Yalie to work there. A Yale student could email a hiring partner at practically any firm expressing interest in the firm, and I guarantee that they will be invited for an interview at the firm (and probably a steak lunch). I included the links for the employment statistics for the class of 2014 for all of the T14 schools. They (ABA Required Disclosures) are available at EVERY law school's website, so I highly encourage everyone to view them before selecting schools to apply and/or commit to. However, please keep in mind that statistics do not give the entire picture.

Yale
http://www.law.yale.edu/studentlife/cdoprospectivestudents2014employstats.htm
Harvard
https://hls.harvard.edu/content/uploads/2015/04/ABA-Employment-Summary-for-2014-Graduates-Final.pdf
Stanford
https://www.law.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/child-page/351563/doc/slspublic/ABA Stats - 2014 - 4-6-15.pdf
Chicago
http://www.law.uchicago.edu/files/file/abaemploymentsummaryclassof2014.pdf
Columbia
http://web.law.columbia.edu/sites/default/files/microsites/careers/files/2014_aba_employment_summary.pdf
NYU
http://www.law.nyu.edu/sites/default/files/NYULawABAReportEmploymentSummary2014Graduates.pdf
UPENN
https://www.law.upenn.edu/live/files/4303-class-of-2014-aba-data-for-websitepdf
UVA
http://www.law.virginia.edu/pdf/aba/2014employment.pdf
Duke
https://law.duke.edu/sites/default/files/career/ABAReport-Class2014.pdf
Berkeley
https://www.law.berkeley.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Employment_Summary2014grads.pdf
Michigan
https://www.law.umich.edu/careers/classstats/Documents/ABASummaryClassof2014.pdf
Northwestern
http://www.law.northwestern.edu/professional-life/career/stats/documents/northwestern_law_employment_summary_2014.pdf
Cornell
http://www.lawschool.cornell.edu/careers/aboutus/upload/ABA-Class-of-2014-Summary.pdf
Georgetown
https://www.law.georgetown.edu/careers/ocs/upload/ABA-Website-Info.pdf

ddakjiking

http://www.lstscorereports.com/schools/

Just saying...everything you need about employment data is right there. They recently just updated their stats with the class of 2014.