Very realistic with your diagnostic, if you're willing to work. But if you are set on NYU, Columbia, Harvard, or Yale, I'd aim a bit higher -- in the 172-175 range.
I got waitlisted at UPenn and Columbia this week. I feel you. Luckily, neither school were in my top picks but it always sucks to get that WL email... It's better than a rejection though! Best of luck.