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7sage Predictor Percentages: What is considered a reach/target?

LAWYEREDLAWYERED Alum Member

Is a 40% chance a target? A 50%? etc?
Where do you think the cut off is for each category?

Comments

  • SLP_futureJDSLP_futureJD Alum Member
    464 karma

    Hi! In his office hours, @"David.Busis" said this (to be interpreted with a grain of salt always since it is only a predictor):
    20% or lower super reach
    20-40% reach
    40-60% target
    60-80% probable target
    80-100% safety

    Hope that helps!

  • MissChanandlerMissChanandler Alum Member Sage
    3256 karma

    The list above seems like a pretty good guideline! I don't think there are hard cutoffs though, and if there's a super reach that you REALLY would love to go to, shoot your shot even if the percentage is like ten percent and not twenty, etc.

  • SLP_futureJDSLP_futureJD Alum Member
    edited December 2018 464 karma

    @MissChanandler Yes I totally agree! I just looked at all my percentages and thought "oh well!" I applied anyway :)

  • David BusisDavid Busis Member Moderator
    7262 karma

    Thanks, @SLP_futureJD !

    But also—I just made those definitions up! The percentage is the percentage. If you have a 65% chance of getting into a law school, I'm not sure it matters whether you call that school a "target" or a "probable target." What matters is you say, "Okay, this is on the more likely end, but it's not a sure bet, so I should definitely add something that feels very safe and also, why not, a couple that feel reachier."

    Also also—the percentages themselves need to be taken with a grain of salt! The point is just to help you figure out whether you need to add schools that are higher or lower on the food chain, or both.

  • LAWYEREDLAWYERED Alum Member
    335 karma

    Thanks! I just wanted to make sure I had roughly 3 targets, 3 reaches, and 3 safeties. :)

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