2021 Cycle Competitiveness

EagerestBeaver

So there are few recent articles (law.com, above the law) remarking that this is shaping up to be the most competitive LSAT cycle in the last 20 years. Any thoughts on what is driving that trend on the impact it has on this year's applicants?

sschch97

Hi! I was an applicant for this year's cycle and have also registered for the April 2021 LSAT. I applied from a range of T-20 to T-30 schools with a gpa that was above medians/75th percentiles and an LSAT that was usually right below the median. As a result, I have been put on countless waitlists, practically every school I applied to waitlisted me. My friends who all applied with scores between 160+ to low 170s have all been put on endless waitlists as well.

I truly think this year's application cycle was a reflection on the pandemic giving everyone the time to adequately prepare for the LSAT, as well as the LSAT Flex being a shorter exam that allows people to weigh certain skills heavier (like Logic Games now being worth more for a point). With that, there was a HUGE influx in top scores, so now the battle as an applicant was to now compete against many people with very similar numbers. As a waitlist applicant, it is a scary spot to be b/c many admissions committees have no idea how strong their yield protection will be this year, thus is why I signed up for another LSAT to be a stronger waitlist applicant. Hopefully that sheds a little bit of light onto your question!

SufficientCondition

Thanks for a great topic @EagerestBeaver ! Like many here, I am participating in this cycle and have a few thoughts about what is likely driving the trend. Since 2015, I have been considering law school and only got around to applying this cycle; yet, I don't feel unusual in that regard. Some people will find what I have to say interesting, but I have no doubt that many will react strongly to my comments. They articulate my attributions for a ~20% rise in applicants, ~30% rise in applications, ~50% rise in scores 170-174, and a ~100% rise in scores 175-180 (all YoY as reported by LSAC).

1) Perhaps the most eye-opening aspect of this cycle is that lowering the burden of the application process even a little generates substantial increases in volume. Of course, I am referring to the ability to take the LSAT remotely and how more candidates met application requirements as a result. I used to work in an operations capacity that helped me see how little (e.g. documentation) obstacles placed in the way of company credit card usage could drastically cut costs. Most people would find it hard to argue that easing the burden of travel and increasing the accessibility of the LSAT had a neutral impact.
2) Widespread quarantine increased the accessibility and appeal of application resources. For a start, less recreation available means less distraction. Graduate school admissions appear much more susceptible to the sort of activities (research, studying) one can practice in lockdown. Concurrent competitiveness in MBA and undergraduate applications seems to support this idea. In a word, if you're stuck inside and want to improve your professional situation, what else are you going to do? Moreover, studying for something like the LSAT imposes an appealing discipline in circumstances otherwise lacking structure. Lastly, in the case of law, more people had more time to watch Reese Witherspoon, Tom Cruise, SVU or whatever and get inspired to become a movie (not a technical term ) lawyer.
3) I should be very clear that I have not heard this reported anywhere, nor have I witnessed it, but I believe some cheating may be contributing to the disproportionate distribution of scores in the upper range. From the vantage point of those who cannot pass by normal standards, the "year of the FLEX" might seem like a once in a lifetime opportunity to cheat and get away with it.
4) Not PC at all, but I suspect that some allowances for extra time "hack" the system. Disabilities should genuinely be accommodated, but that does not mean that some ambitious parents and candidates will not seek inappropriate avenues to gain an advantage. I do not envy the LSAC's difficult position in this regard.
5) Economic disturbance led many (like me) to devote more time to a dream they had otherwise put on hold. This article [https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-simple-investing-playbook-for-the-great-cessation-11585047600?st=t1yijh7yxvc8n8j&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink] from this time last year encouraged me to re-invest in my education, and it is representative of advice people dislocated by a personal (or worldwide) crisis receive. There is both the carrot of a better fitting life and the stick the pandemic took to whatever path one was on before.
6) This seems to me implied, but when candidates have twice as many people with a higher score than they would in another year, gaining admission will be more competitive than it was. Moreover, admissions committees are suddenly cast into uncharted waters. Whatever the increase in uncertainty from the applicant perspective this year, their uncertainty (will we have too few or too many 2024 students, will we over- or under-spend our scholarship allowance, will we take a dive through the rankings???) compounds the confusing admissions environment. Exponential uncertainty becomes an acute problem if you assume that a given law school's institutional decision-making depends on their ability to project the decision-making of their close competitors in addition to students. When you're driving, often it's the limits to the certainty of safety rather than the number of cars on the road that leads to slowdowns.

These factors seem to me likely to be at the root of the growth in applicants, the disproportionate growth of higher scores, and the resulting amplification of competition. I think the coming cycle will see a slight reduction in applications (no more threshold effect), but that will be tempered by rollover applicants and the continuation of several points above. There is no "return to normal," in my view.

EDIT: added to point 6.

kkole444

@VerdantZephyr had post/comment a week or so ago. I forget what post it was under but verdantzephyr really explained it quite will in my opinion. Maybe Verdant can post the comment here again or link to the post it was on.

VerdantZephyr

@kkole444 thanks. I think @HarcourtG alluded to some of my big points already. The rise in both applications and highest scores doesn't mean that they were earned this year or are from those newly trying to go to law school. Many brilliant high scorers applying this year may have been people afraid to make the leap from their prior job until the pandemic. The ability to easily take the LSAT multiple times and the removal of testing limits also matter. I can't comment on the cheating aspect being greater than usual.

SufficientCondition

@VerdantZephyr said:
@kkole444 thanks. I think @HarcourtG alluded to some of my big points already. The rise in both applications and highest scores doesn't mean that they were earned this year or are from those newly trying to go to law school. Many brilliant high scorers applying this year may have been people afraid to make the leap from their prior job until the pandemic. The ability to easily take the LSAT multiple times and the removal of testing limits also matter. I can't comment on the cheating aspect being greater than usual.

Good point on the re-takes! Several administrations did not count towards the five-test limit.