One of the hardest yet most helpful practices during Blind Review is to create your own analogous arguments. Consider the following analogy which should demonstrate the issue of smuggling facts of the world which you believe into other people's minds.

Oranges contain vitamin C which is an essential vitamin. (This is a fact. You just read it so even if you didn't already believe it before, you certainly believe it now.)

Many people criticize oranges because they believe that the fruit has no health benefits. These same people believe that vitamin C has health benefits.

Here's the entire content of those people's beliefs:
b1 - Oranges have no health benefits.
b2 - Vitamin C has health benefits.

Can we say that these people hold contradictory beliefs about oranges? No, we cannot. Look again at b1 and b2. There is no contradiction. You're tempted to say yes because you know that oranges contain vitamin C and you think to yourself surely they must believe this too. This is the trap that (A) lays out.

But, what we can say for sure is that these people's b1 is just wrong. They're just wrong about oranges' health benefits. Because b1 contradicts a fact of the world. This is (C), the correct answer.


37 comments

Etiquette helps people to get along with each other. For example, it prevents people from inadvertently offending one another. While many people criticize etiquette because they believe it has no beneficial effects for society, these same people think that kindness and social harmony are good.

Summary
Etiquette helps people get along with each other. Some people criticize etiquette because they believe it has no beneficial effects for society. However, these same people also believe that social harmony is good.

Strongly Supported Conclusions
Some people who criticize etiquette mistakenly believe that it has no beneficial effects for society.

A
Many people who criticize etiquette have contradictory views about etiquette.
This answer is unsupported. We don’t know whether the people who think that etiquette helps people get along are also the same people who think etiquette has no beneficial effects for society. These are two different viewpoints embedded within the stimulus.
B
Many people have respect for etiquette even though they criticize it.
This answer is unsupported. We don’t know whether the people who have respect for etiquette are the same people who criticize etiquette. These are two different viewpoints embedded within the stimulus.
C
Many people who criticize etiquette are mistaken about its beneficial effects for society.
This answer is strongly supported. Some people who criticize etiquette are mistaken about its beneficial effects because these same people think social harmony is beneficial.
D
If people were more considerate there would be no need for etiquette.
This answer is unsupported. We don’t know from the stimulus what would cause the need for etiquette to decrease.
E
Kindness and social harmony are highly beneficial to society.
This answer is unsupported. To say that these factors are “highly” beneficial is too strong. They may be beneficial to some degree, but that degree is undetermined by the stimulus.

41 comments

In the video, I showed one way in which a small increase in average could have resulted in a large increase in the proportion of obese children. There are other ways too.

Here's one of those ways. Even if everyone gained exactly one pound, it may be the case that there were so many previously-almost-obese-children (within 1lb of obesity) or so few previously-obese children that the one pound gain increases the obese proportion dramatically.

Here's another. A lot of kids could have lost weight. To compensate for those kids losing weight, we'd have to have a lot of kids gaining weight to increase the total average by 1lb. Those kids that gain weight could be the large increase in obese children. If you're statistically inclined, think of it this way. Assume weight is normally distributed. Flatten the curve in the middle and shift the entire curve 1lb to the right. You would get substantially more obese children with a substantial flattening of the curve.


7 comments

In the video, I showed one way in which a small increase in average could have resulted in a large increase in the proportion of obese children. There are other ways too.

Here's one of those ways. Even if everyone gained exactly one pound, it may be the case that there were so many previously-almost-obese-children (within 1lb of obesity) or so few previously-obese children that the one pound gain increases the obese proportion dramatically.

Here's another. A lot of kids could have lost weight. To compensate for those kids losing weight, we'd have to have a lot of kids gaining weight to increase the total average by 1lb. Those kids that gain weight could be the large increase in obese children. If you're statistically inclined, think of it this way. Assume weight is normally distributed. Flatten the curve in the middle and shift the entire curve 1lb to the right. You would get substantially more obese children with a substantial flattening of the curve.


7 comments