I was between E and D and ultimately chose D because of the wording in the stimulus (unlikely, are likely) and question E said that Global warming "will not" (aka certain to not) produce...
@MRod I got the question wrong for that exact same reason. The word "probably" makes e more accurate than D. D is saying that the wind flow "will" (certainly, 100%, is going to happen) negate the effect even though the stimulus says that it is "likely". Logically both answers seem right, but when I broke it down like that I was able to see why D is wrong.
My issue was that i was essentially reading everything as essentially context especially with what the recent research was saying. and the other factors
I almost fell for it! I even picked answer choice B first. Then I had an epiphany. The fact that other factors contribute to tropical storm development apart from global warming is not a conclusion, it is a premise! A premise presented as evidence used to challenge the prediction. But the conclusion is that the prediction is wrong.
I'm not liking (E) for a few reasons. First was just semantic in that it spoke hypothetically about something actively happening, whereas (B) spoke about what is happening which made more sense given the timeline presented. But also, the conclusion doesn't seem to me to deny that global warming can cause storms, only that that effect wouldn't be borne out, as would rule out (B). This doesn't affect (E), but makes (B) feel like an equally attractive answer. Help!
@Peterhinkle 1. The timeline is: tropical storms require heat and moisture -> so they form over ocean surfaces that global warming would encourage -> based on this, early discussions of global warming predicted that global warming would cause more frequent and intense tropical storms (because global warming encourages ocean temperatures that provide the right conditions for the formation of tropical storms). I'm not entirely sure on what you mean about the semantics of each answer choice, so forgive me if I've misunderstood you, but I think the fact that E is speaking hypothetically about something actively happening makes it an attractive answer. The author's conclusion is rejecting a prediction put forward by earlier discussions, rather than an actively-happening phenomenon. The actively-happening phenomenon would be the formation of tropical storms, but that's not what the author is focused on. The author cares about the predictive causes of the formation of tropical storms, which earlier discussions cite as global warming, which the author is disagreeing with. If you were dissuaded by the "probably," remember that answers to MC questions should paraphrase the conclusion—so, the "probably will not" can be conflated with the "unlikely to" in the conclusion.
2. The conclusion is denying the prediction that global warming would cause more frequent and intense tropical storms, because there's at least one other factor that would counteract, or work against, global warming in causing more tropical storms. The effect of global warming on tropical storms is a hypothesis championed by some other people, not the author. The author is saying the prediction that global warming will cause more storms will not be borne out, as in the prediction will not take place.
@Peterhinkle The conclusion kind of speaks hypothetically. "Recent research shows, this prediction [global warming causing tropical storms] is unlikely to be borne out." So, "Global warming probably will not produce more... tropical storms" is a pretty good restatement of that. Hope that helps!
@Yanirj5678 I had that issue too, and one thing that helped me was when J.Y. said that there are 4 obviously incorrect, embarrassingly wrong answers. That lesson helped me hunt right answers better.
I always seem to pick the wrong answer the first time but the correct answer the second time but I don't want to get into the habit of overthinking and changing answers last minute. Does someone have an idea on how to better decide between the two more correct answer choices?
@tcushenberry Something that helps me if your between two, which I have heard a lot on the Demon Podcast (Sorry) is to remember that one of them is just weak/wrong. You’re not going to get two equally supported answers. One of them has a component, even just one word, that makes it weaker then the other option. Practice looking for those indicator words and you got this!
Can someone explain why B is wrong. To me wind speed is another factor affecting the frequency and intensity of TS. the effect is that it diminishes or negates them but that's still an affect right?
Think of the process like this; the very first step to this is to identify the geographer's conclusion. " But recent research shows that this prediction is unlikely to be borne out"
Specifically in the conclusion, there are no mentions of any factors that affect the frequency or intensity of tropical storms, the conclusion simply is saying that recent research is showing that global warming =/= more storms.
Now, reading the question, what you're asked to do is to basically just rephrase the argument (conclusion).
Does B reword his argument? it does not. However, E literally just rewords it.
I hope this helps? I'm new to this but that was my thought process lol
As soon as I got comfortable with not reading the question stem in these lessons.... Damn. I promise I read them almost all of the time up until I mistakenly started to realize it's wasting time and it's probably going to be the topic of the lesson. This was good to learn not to do this early on.
Guessing this was placed in the MSS section instead of the MC section to remind people to read the stem first to identify the question types, since that's what this lesson plan mentions to do in the Theory and Approach sections lol
Originally chose B but changed to E in my blind review. I need to focus on the content right now instead of the timer and truly learn the material. Time will increase upon deeper understanding. Blind review has been super helpful!
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124 comments
got during the BR, really leaning into BR. First going based on speed versus BR having time to break it down and not rely on first pass.
sneaky sneaky!
I feel like I’m going backwards
Couldn't you also say that B is wrong because it is summarizing a premise
I found the author's opinion and still picked the wrong AC. SMH
@Mina.G Same. B is tricky.
i definitely misread the question lol
Oh my god, I didn't even realize this was a main conclusion question! I was like, "How is that incorrect!?" 🤦♀️
damn, got this one wrong, I chose D. Very tricky!
I literally got this one wrong because I thought it was still MSS. Gotta slow down and make sure to read the question stem.
@EdithM Same!! I picked B then D! Ugh. Great learning lesson though!
I didn't see this was a main conclusion question and was answering as if it was a MSS question. I need sleep.
@epayne17 same here thought my mind was playing tricks on me because i didn't read question stem
I was between E and D and ultimately chose D because of the wording in the stimulus (unlikely, are likely) and question E said that Global warming "will not" (aka certain to not) produce...
@MRod I got the question wrong for that exact same reason. The word "probably" makes e more accurate than D. D is saying that the wind flow "will" (certainly, 100%, is going to happen) negate the effect even though the stimulus says that it is "likely". Logically both answers seem right, but when I broke it down like that I was able to see why D is wrong.
What helped me with this question was examining the indicator word "unlikely" in the stimulus. That is what sealed the deal for me between E and D.
The stimulus, "this prediction is unlikely to be borne out", is the same as saying, "I am more than 50% sure that the prediction is wrong".
Answer choice E then states a rephrasing of that sentence, "probably will not". More likely than not.
My issue was that i was essentially reading everything as essentially context especially with what the recent research was saying. and the other factors
I almost fell for it! I even picked answer choice B first. Then I had an epiphany. The fact that other factors contribute to tropical storm development apart from global warming is not a conclusion, it is a premise! A premise presented as evidence used to challenge the prediction. But the conclusion is that the prediction is wrong.
LSAT I am learning your dirty tricks!
Fell for it!! Got it in the BR though😮💨
I'm not liking (E) for a few reasons. First was just semantic in that it spoke hypothetically about something actively happening, whereas (B) spoke about what is happening which made more sense given the timeline presented. But also, the conclusion doesn't seem to me to deny that global warming can cause storms, only that that effect wouldn't be borne out, as would rule out (B). This doesn't affect (E), but makes (B) feel like an equally attractive answer. Help!
@Peterhinkle 1. The timeline is: tropical storms require heat and moisture -> so they form over ocean surfaces that global warming would encourage -> based on this, early discussions of global warming predicted that global warming would cause more frequent and intense tropical storms (because global warming encourages ocean temperatures that provide the right conditions for the formation of tropical storms). I'm not entirely sure on what you mean about the semantics of each answer choice, so forgive me if I've misunderstood you, but I think the fact that E is speaking hypothetically about something actively happening makes it an attractive answer. The author's conclusion is rejecting a prediction put forward by earlier discussions, rather than an actively-happening phenomenon. The actively-happening phenomenon would be the formation of tropical storms, but that's not what the author is focused on. The author cares about the predictive causes of the formation of tropical storms, which earlier discussions cite as global warming, which the author is disagreeing with. If you were dissuaded by the "probably," remember that answers to MC questions should paraphrase the conclusion—so, the "probably will not" can be conflated with the "unlikely to" in the conclusion.
2. The conclusion is denying the prediction that global warming would cause more frequent and intense tropical storms, because there's at least one other factor that would counteract, or work against, global warming in causing more tropical storms. The effect of global warming on tropical storms is a hypothesis championed by some other people, not the author. The author is saying the prediction that global warming will cause more storms will not be borne out, as in the prediction will not take place.
@Peterhinkle The conclusion kind of speaks hypothetically. "Recent research shows, this prediction [global warming causing tropical storms] is unlikely to be borne out." So, "Global warming probably will not produce more... tropical storms" is a pretty good restatement of that. Hope that helps!
I got it correct in my initial run, but blind review I picked the trap answer. I always narrow it down to the "two best answers"!
@Yanirj5678 I had that issue too, and one thing that helped me was when J.Y. said that there are 4 obviously incorrect, embarrassingly wrong answers. That lesson helped me hunt right answers better.
Got it right in blind review! I'll take that as a win. found my error in my original thought process and corrected it
I got the right answer but I took longer than I thought. Even with extra time, I still struggle with taking too long oh well
I hate how they recommend questions that you got correct the first time for blind review
@delaneycv Its more to test whether or not you actually know the answer or simply guessed it
@delaneycv You can change it in the settings.
I always seem to pick the wrong answer the first time but the correct answer the second time but I don't want to get into the habit of overthinking and changing answers last minute. Does someone have an idea on how to better decide between the two more correct answer choices?
@tcushenberry Something that helps me if your between two, which I have heard a lot on the Demon Podcast (Sorry) is to remember that one of them is just weak/wrong. You’re not going to get two equally supported answers. One of them has a component, even just one word, that makes it weaker then the other option. Practice looking for those indicator words and you got this!
Can someone explain why B is wrong. To me wind speed is another factor affecting the frequency and intensity of TS. the effect is that it diminishes or negates them but that's still an affect right?
@AlizaGGG Hello!
Think of the process like this; the very first step to this is to identify the geographer's conclusion. " But recent research shows that this prediction is unlikely to be borne out"
Specifically in the conclusion, there are no mentions of any factors that affect the frequency or intensity of tropical storms, the conclusion simply is saying that recent research is showing that global warming =/= more storms.
Now, reading the question, what you're asked to do is to basically just rephrase the argument (conclusion).
Does B reword his argument? it does not. However, E literally just rewords it.
I hope this helps? I'm new to this but that was my thought process lol
@ibrahemaljumaily Thank you
As soon as I got comfortable with not reading the question stem in these lessons.... Damn. I promise I read them almost all of the time up until I mistakenly started to realize it's wasting time and it's probably going to be the topic of the lesson. This was good to learn not to do this early on.
Guessing this was placed in the MSS section instead of the MC section to remind people to read the stem first to identify the question types, since that's what this lesson plan mentions to do in the Theory and Approach sections lol
@Chad1125 I made that mistake. Just brushed past the question and assumed it was MSS. Lesson learned.
Originally chose B but changed to E in my blind review. I need to focus on the content right now instead of the timer and truly learn the material. Time will increase upon deeper understanding. Blind review has been super helpful!